The national intermediate publication addresses this issue in an analysis, arguing that the acquisition of the bomb cannot solve the problem of preventing the Islamic Republic. The analysis report stated: “Getting a bomb by Iran will not only solve its prevention problemBut I will introduce it to A Unsecterism. Dispose of A Bambanuklier leaves Iran with the highest tension level with a single barrier equipmentThe challenges for Iran are at all levels of this tension level, not just in the highest place.
In Iran’s internal debate on nuclear, there are many perspectives: from Complete construction of nuclear pumpCriticism Iaranismí, the cancellation of the fatwa that prohibits the use of nuclear weapons, EnrichmentIt is a combination of advanced research or these on pump production. All these options are intended to increase Iran’s barrier power.
Some arguments also point to the doctrine of Kenneth Waldz, he believed that he was the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the Middle East If an Iranian bomb initiated against the Israeli bomb it may create regional stability. From this point of view, Iran’s desire to have a bomb seems reasonable. A functional nuclear program will make any enemy think twice before attacking Iran.
Can they make a nuclear weapon?
However, more attention is focused on SI Iran can quickly Without the attack of Israel or US. There is not enough attention to “the next day”, which is not achieved. On Iran’s entry to the nuclia prevention worldR; Not a goal, but the field of the new competition, in this field, there is no similar place to Iran.
The barrier equation is simple: If the atomic bomb is launchedOvarian Nuclear power response is obtained. If you really use a nuclear weapon, the Islamic Republic has signed its death penalty. Therefore, it must believe its enemies that the prevention is useful, or that it treats irrational, or that it respects the controversial problem rather than its own survival. Otherwise, the enemy can conduct Iran’s nuclear threats as a hoax and ignore them.
Iran’s irrational benefit
Iran has an advantage on the basis that some of its enemies are irrational. Islamic Republic is based on religious ideologyIt opens the opportunity to imagine that he may be ready to commit suicide to destroy Israel. Some faces of the organization seem to be a combination of hysteria and rhetoric; A useful compound to trigger irrational nature. Iran’s foreign policy is sometimes meaningful, for example, Anti -Israeli anti -Israel.
However, the most detained test of Iran’s irrational is undermined. A country may have irrational objectives (such as the destruction of Israel), but chases them in a completely rational ways. Sometimes, Iran’s foreign policy is most calculated: In response to the murder of Qasim SolaimaniFor example, a given one Limited and predictable responseAvoiding conflict with a superpower, by its own protection, allows Israel to conquer their friends, Hamas and Hebollah.
In addition, those who take the religious motivations of Iran should be surprised to see why the rule withdrew from the protection of Shiite holy places in Syria, and did not allow their forces to free a war in the style of Carbala. In the last 20 years, Iran is always concerned that its nuclear program does not cross red lines They may cause attack. There are voices that express their dissatisfaction with this warning on the chest of sovereignty.
Iran may try to seem further unpredictable, for example, supporting extremist Tribunal in Friday prayers or choosing less predictable leaders. However, these measures are less. There are still real results, and the results refer to trends. If those trends are rational, Tyisses fails based on irrational nature.
That is the other part of the barrier The enemy believes that Iran wants to die than to retire. But that hope cannot be fulfilled because there are always alternatives. Last December, Bashar al -Assad wanted to leave the Damascus last December, that is, he accepted the decision of his rule. Iran has been severely affected to date, Without establishing a serious determination to Israel or the United States.
Prevention begins with real art. Countries Nuclear weapons believe that the enemies of Arsenals and doctorate titles “they can really use bomb”. This situation creates a lot of pressure on entering the armed competition. But Iran, due to its many problems, is not good to compete with rich and advanced enemies.
The truth is, due to the failure of Iran’s prevention Weaknesses in different stages of voltage levelWeaknesses that cannot be solved by a pump above this size. Iran is forced to carry out its attacks with lazy objectives and previous intelligence information because its skills are less than Israel’s capabilities at the average levels.
Dedications for Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Power
Las Ballistic missiles Iran’s most important capacity. However, two waves against Israel have died, including a Palestinian,. This is Iran’s weak response before Israel’s accurate and effective range. Iran’s leaders promised a response, but months passed and no response. Everything is at the highest level of tension levels, and is in Israel with a handle in Israel.
A Nuclear bomb is more scared of war without paragraphs of Paracks And, in doing so, I will create a barrier against more ambitious objectives such as regime change. But if the mutual annihilation threat is not useful if there are limited objectives such as taking positions for enemies.
Worse, Having a nuclear pump does not mean that it can be used. Even if they tied a small bomb, the enemies could stop shooting it. Israel and the United States have the ability to interrupt Iranian missiles. Israel was able to re -infiltrate the Iran’s nuclear program. You can deactivate the pump carrier missiles or find and destroy the output sites before the attack. If the commanders do not provide shooting orders, the prevention fails.
AdvertisementSome of these problems are almost unresolved. The Islamic Republic is full of spies due to its corruption. Iran’s leaders may be tempted to solve or adjust these problems, but any solution causes their own risks.
Iran’s possible nuclear future
May try to increase security by making Iran The nuclear system is very confidential Or gives power to shoot at lower levels. But this will increase the risk of stealing bombs or the accidental nuclear war will erupt.
Iran can also try to build Missiles that avoid security settings. He is doing with regular missiles now. However, nuclear work will intensify that effort and push Iran into a dangerous and expensive competition with two more advanced countries.
In the first years, Iran will have the lowest nuclear weapons. You have to take some of these on the goal. Can Hide nuclear missiles among regular missiles with a major missile attackUnderneath Ukraine, Russia uses Lesco. However, knowing the origins of Israel or US outputs can only be focused on suspicious purposes. If a particular missile has basic bombs, the blows are ignored from other sites.
AdvertisementThe enemy can even Attack those sites as a barrier The use of a nuclear weapon is because a large explosion is very effective. That is, Israel and the United States must be prepared all the time, and Iran must continue to be cautious. All of this increases the risk of accidental nuclear war.
States with nuclear weapons with skilled enemies are well aware of these pressures. They Improving missiles, increasing their arms repository, creating authentication systems, scattering bitchtersEtc. they have responded.
But these matches have their own logic: The enemy of his plan looks and responds with mutual. You have to answer again, the cycle continues generously and endlessly. These expenses are not only destroying the economy, but also eliminating military capacity elsewhere. Will you sacrifice your remaining armed forces for nuclear weapons? And the worst thing is that not all the plans are mentioned.
Great Britain is a great example. There were many projects in the country to improve nuclear power, including the Skyopold program, which failed in the British security policy and caused a crisis. Evarbara Sky Shield. Later, the Polaris system was updated with a program called Sevin, which was successful, but was many times more expensive than expected. This is the same high -Cost competition that Iran participates.
AdvertisementNuclear power will be important to Iran
Iran’s current nuclear options are the first step in the road to the first arms competition. A bomb that cannot be carried soon will weaken Iran’s barrier. Withdrawal from Adam-e-Mishhei contract increases the reasoning of the use of weapons against Iran. US does not reject the use of nuclear weapons There are no states against nuclear weapons. Now, if Iran has weapons, it is very reasonable to use the bomb against him, especially with the Republican administration in the White House.
In those situations a regular attack would be greater. The best time for Israel attack is almost At the same time produces an irreversible pump that is not at the beginning. In Delhi, many Western countries and territories are happy with Israel’s action. Israel also has the history of unilateral measures against nuclear power projects such as Iraq Osirak in 1981 and in 1981. A basic bomb that cannot be used against Israel will not have a barrier but will increase the risk of attack.
As a result, it will be Very sensible that they will close their ears before the cheating song of nuclear weapons. Bomb acquisition will put Iran in a competition that does not solve or benefit from its main concept. A nuclear Iran is bad not only for the world but also to Iran.
