Wednesday (9) it started with a tariff of 104 % of the United States on China products that enter power.
The rate was the result of the “mutual fare” announced by President Donald Trump on April 2 and additional fees for the United States after Chinese revenge last Friday.
At dawn today with a new answer from China: 84 % rate of American products that enter the country.
In the afternoon, Trump again “bending the bet” lifted Applied rate on Chinese imports by 125 %. Parallel to other countries, Trump announced the postponement of higher rates, and a 10 % basic rate on its products.
Ed Mills, an analyst at Raymond James, notes that the change is the change “Unbelievable, but also it can be fully predicted.”.
According to the analyst, Trump’s decision is “an implicit recognition that the current strategy has not been fully examined and cannot be tolerated.”
China x USA: What is a fragile side?
Rodrigo Zidane, Professor of Economics at New York University, Shanghai and Dom Cabral Foundation, pointed out, Ww Which has yet seen a greater impact on the American economy than the Chinese.
By thinking about whenever each side can stand on this ascension, Brona Aleman, the head of the Nomos International schedule, is still breathing to continue the bright from the United States.
“The point Trump needs to realize is that China has prepared more time to continue this trade war. It has the main factors for production, major factories and major factories. The world today relies a lot on China.” Cnn money.
“What the world depends only on the United States is the coin. It will remain strong, it will remain a safe haven, but Trump does not understand that it is a different country, in times of inflation, and where China can deal with this trade war for a longer period.”
For Carlos Gustavo Pogo, Professor of Political Science at Beria College, the Americans have two models. The first will be “a strategic dismantling of China”.
“The United States is increasingly directing production chains to become less dependent on China in the basic inputs,” he explained to Ww.
The second feature will be a wide arc for the historically preserved allies by the country, but in a strategic error according to Bogo, Trump will be “destroying”.
Incomprehensible
Economists CNN They confirmed that the scenario is no longer sustainable and even rational.
He was asked about the extent to which China and the United States moved with this trade war climbing, says Alexander Schwartsman, former central bank director (BC) for international affairs, says it is from now on an indistential upward up.
((Trump) is 125 % mode, and from there he can put the number he wants. bullying Simple pure. “…) economically, the two are causing giant damage, and they have no great idea,” said Shoresman.
What economists heard CNN They point out that tension is moved, above all, due to the uncertainty resulting from Trump’s commercial policy.
“The big problem that the markets currently face is instability, the lack of policies and the contradiction of information, which has maintained uncertainty in high levels, similar to those observed in times of crisis,” Andrinds Durao, economist Asa.
Shuritsmann notes how the moment of inability to predict paralysis due to the risks involved in uncertainty. This, therefore, tends to “threaten everyone in stagnation”, as he indicates.
Moreover, it indicates one of the few factors related to the current scenario: the tendency to pressure inflation in the United States.
Blocked
For Carlos Gustavo Boggio, Trump “first retreat” at the crossroads.
However, it is not seen in the customs tariff that exceeds 10 % as sufficient to reduce tensions and doubts. Alexander Schweitzmann notes that “at this stage of the championship” none of the party can reduce the goalkeeper and return: “politically, the cost is very high.”
Column Cnn money Tony Volbon, the former international director of BC, also agrees that “no sides do not want to look like a weak advice,” but he believes the recent developments generate an opportunity for the initial dialogue.
“Trump has found a way to clarify the stock market, (…) to roam, but to put themselves as a great strategic country and isolation when he made it clear that he was not revenge, it was negotiating. I think there is an opening in this situation,” Volpon flows.
“There is” savings “for both to announce negotiation. The market is trying to pricing this production as well. This level indicates the charging of everything, almost like the siege.”
At this time when the exchange between the two countries is not sustainable that Roberto Opel, an economist and professor at ESPM at ESPM, sees a turning point.
“I think there will be a boundary point where there will be an unsustainable trade between the two countries,” Opel says.
Negotiation
Rodrigo Zidane notes that the Chinese are “practical”, so it will not be unreasonable to request an agreement, but the United States must have clearer criteria.
“You are putting the teachers to negotiate and the Chinese negotiate will be negotiated Ww.
But for this to happen, Volpon believes that the scenario depends on both countries to find a way to disarm the situation without losing political capital.
“The ball now (the president of China) has become the eleventh (Jinping), who can now play over time,” BC concludes.
The conclusion is that the situation is not already sustainable, and if it continues, the world tends to pay precariously for this bet.
“We are talking about an unprecedented introductory war in history and will definitely lead to the fragmentation of pluralism, and it is fragmented by the current international system that can lead to a scenario of global stagnation,” says Opel.
“I understand that this tariff war will affect all countries that are part of the international system, this global system depends on pluralism, because we are talking about values chains, we are talking about an interconnected economy,” the ESPM professor concludes.
Poggio compares Trump to the Roman Emperor Nero, who has become known to be burning with alleged fire in Rome. The political science teacher indicates that the Republican administration has worked on the argument that the current international system does not prefer the United States, so that the solution is to “set fire” in it.
The commercial opening reduces Trump’s effect on Brazil? Understand
