The writer of a global guest column Trump, populism and definitions: the illusion of control

Written by Roberto Aspurors Gleleson*

• A strategy based on strengths, conceptual errors and invisible global risks.

In X, Cremieuxrecueil shared a strong analogy: if the child has a nearsightedness, the reasonable thing is to give him glasses, not to change his DNA. Unlike this, Trump Ignoring practical solutions to the American economy and attacking what is called the root cause: the trade deficit.

April 2, Trump Imposing a collective tariff declared by “Liberation Day”. Its goal: reducing the trade deficit with many countries, especially with China. Interestingly, this strategy repeats a typical error of artificial intelligence such as Chatgpt-4O and Gemini: Assume that the deficit is corrected by definitions. Select the reference in Rohit this coincidence. If this is derived from the recession, it will be the first that is affected – directly or indirectly – for artificial intelligence.

It was an instant market blow. The S&P 500 decreased 12 % in just two days (April 3-4). The temporary suspension was 90 days on April 9, created a 9.5 % recovery, but the next day the bags decreased by 3.5 percent. Since January, the historical falls are recorded: Nasdaq -17.03 % and S&P 500 -11.91 percent. Volatility has become a base, and trust and structural damage have already been crushed, not just conjunctiva.

Before this collapse, Trump It returns, but it does not produce: it announces a temporary stop, but it maintains the threat. Non -brown tactical modification.

Paul CrowgmanNobel Prize in Economics, called “evil stupidity”. Do not see a dangerous commercial policy, but symbolism without technical support or direction. The most dangerous: confidence erosion in the United States as a global economic partner. Joseph SteglitzNobel, indicates this Trump It works without any economic basis.

Show deficit as an injustice, ignoring that the modern economy falls in services (tourism, education, health), and the sectors that have already been affected by their immigration policies. Stijlitz Judgment:

“The idea of ​​returning to 1950 is not only wrong. It’s dangerous.”

For example, in 2023, educational services achieved more income for the United States than natural gas and joint coal. The 1.1 million international students contributed 43 billion dollars, which enhances research and innovation, as more than half of the successful startups of foreign graduates have emerged.

Ricardo HosmanFrom Harvard, warns that Trump Fighting in the wrong front.

With a deficit of $ 1.2 billion in assets in 2024, the true American power lies in its invisible assets: advanced services, intellectual property, and global investments, which are worth $ 16.4 trillion. If other countries decrease from these assets, the damage will be catastrophic.

Jeffrey Sax Add a fundamental criticism: The deficit is not an external error, but rather the inner imbalance, which consumes more than it results.

To summarize it exciting:

“It will be absurd to blame stores to sell things when you decide to borrow.”

to Laserand Trump Use this mismatch as an excuse to impose unilateral measures. It is not an economic policy: it is authoritarian, institutional.

Robert LawrenceAlso from Harvard University, a warning that customs tariffs will not refresh manufacturing or provide jobs. With only 8 % of Americans in this sector, even the elimination of the deficit will be minimal. In addition, they can strengthen the dollar, make export and wear the state of the global currency.

LawrenceSharp, summarizing it:

“It is a bad economy, dangerous nostalgia, and high geopolitical risks.” In addition, he warns: “The old discussion was the separation from western China. The new is whether the rest of the world really needed the United States.”

The logic of customs tariffs is not only wrong: it is essentially popular. As explained Jean Werner MullerPopularity simplifies the policy on a confrontation between “good and abusive American foreigners”.

to TrumpThe destruction destroys strength and chaos reaffirming power. Silva-hezog márquez He explains: The definitions are not an economic policy, but it is an authoritarian theater. They do not protect jobs, but – in their words – “the spirit of the nation”, although it involves the destruction of the multilateral system that formulated prosperity.

For Mexico, the consequences are immediate. Despite the president Shinbum The company and brilliance runs the bilateral relationship and pushes the Mexico as a parallel costume, the definitions already affect our economy, while uncertainty undermines expectations and leads to erosion of regional confidence.

Economic pressure continues to climb. With fall in the fall and gold, the maximum, Trump It intensifies the attacks against the President of the Federal Reserve, weakens global confidence. It is also warned summer:

“When bags, bonds, and dollars fall simultaneously – while gold players – there is no just disturbance, but a huge capital escape.”

The exclusive pattern of emerging economies now strikes the United States. Stability will remain absent, while economic populism that undermines institutions and weakens the rule of law.

In the face of this scenario, what it preserves is the clarity of vision. As correction lenses without changing DNA, policy requires concrete solutions, not empty gestures. When myopia becomes a doctrine, the danger is not clear: it is destroyed against history.

*Federal MP of Shayabas (PT). Economists