Price They fell on Tuesday for the fourth day, reaching the lowest amount in four years Recession fears In the midst of the increasing profound world trade war. Vast US President Donald Trump’s mutual fees They are already in effect, China, the world’s largest oil importer, is now104%facing import charges.
From Trump’s announcement of new fees, Brent crude future More than 19% have declined to $ 60.41 per barrel, and the future of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 20% to the barrel of $ 57.06, which refers to the lower levels from March 2021.
TuesdayChina promised to “fight until the end” after the threat to Trump’s additional 50% of the fees. AmericaOn the other hand, it maintains its determination to use 104%of all taxes. Intensity Battle of business between two major economies The world has prompted the widespread sales of risk assets.
“As for China, the fees will significantly reduce export and industrial production, Two main growth machinesTechnical and electric vehicle sectors may be better affected. As a result, we are likely to see low oil demand, ”said Peppersstone Australia Market Analyst Dilin Wu in an email. “104% of the fee may be withdrawal of inflation American up to 4%before taking into account other new fees. This will also increase the chances of the recession Deep in the United States, “he added.
Remove the OPEC cuts
Eight key members to make the downward pressure worse Oil Exports Organization (OPEC) They agreed last week to accelerate the withdrawal of previous production cuts. In the meantime, The most ‘secondary charges’ of Trump For major oil exporters such as Venezuela, Iran and Russia, they can compensate for some increase in production. However, the fears of the recession often eclipse the geopolitical tensions at this time.
In this context, Energy information In the United States, its monthly reporting has delayed the energy perspectives in the short term, initially planned on Tuesday. “The company quoted the need to re -examine our models to take into account the most recent evolution of the market and now publish the report on Thursday. In response to the degradation of perspectives, Goldman Sachs At the end of the year it reduced its Brent oil forecast to $ 40 per barrel, indicating an additional 36% drop compared to the current conditions.
However, Wu has added that In business conflict any sign of T -Virtue may be regenerated: “Short positioning is already very tension. So the market may progress back before any sign.”
China is expected to intensify its stimulating measures of financial and currency. At its annual March meeting, Beijing re -confirmed the growth goal of GDP GDP By 2025, 5% and EE.U had announced new stimulating measures in the middle of the EE.U payment threat expansion. The government has also raised its budget deficit 4%of GDP, high in three decades. Researchers expect new support measures to be announced soon in response to the Business War.
China sensitive raw materials affect the subvership of mining
Not only the oil, but also other growth raw materials have recorded a strong decline in the last sessions, which is driven by weakening the expectations of demand among the entire business war. Copper future in Comex has fallen 19% From April 3 to Libra. Iron Mineral Future (62% fine CFR China) in the SGX has fallen 7% in the same period, until the minimum has not been seen from September 2024. Even precious metals are not saved: Investors sold their assets to compensate for losses in risk assets since last Wednesday.
The fall of industrial metals and basic minerals has affected mining activities around the world. In Australia, the BHP team, The largest mining company in the world, its stocks declined by 11% In the last four sessions, from October 2020 to the minimum, Rio Tinto stocks are at least 9%at least in seven months. “The unfortunate part of this is that China sneezes, Australia slips,” said Ettero Australia market analyst Josh Gilbert.
In Europe, Swiss mining company Glenkor has seen how its shares have been 16% since December 2020, while the Anglo American BLC quoted in the United Kingdom fell 14% until at least one year.
