Data from Labor market Worse in March, compared to February results, but analysts point out that the Brazilian economy is still warm despite the rise of the attention course launched in September last year.
Experts heard before CNN, Unemployment It should be the last to feel the weight of rates. However, reactions should start to appear more than the second half of this year.
while Unemployment Determined by the national research of the continuous family sample (Pnad continues)) 7 % roseGeneral registration for employees and unemployed (imprisoned)) The opening of 71 thousand jobs In the month, The worst result since 2020.
However, the Bradesco Economic Research and Economic Studies Department sought to explain that “even if it was cooling in March, Labor market data Continue noting that The economic activity was expressive growth In the first trimester of pregnancy. “
Heating scenario in the economy despite the high interest rates in the country. In March, Central Bank (BC) SELIC – The basic interest rate in the country – by 14.25 % annually, at the highest level since 2016.
Attention is the main mechanism through which BC seeks to control inflation in the country. By breeding silic, The municipality is mainly “earning money more expensive”. The cost of credit increases, loans take, thus the demand is reduced, and thus reduce prices.
What economists heard CNN They explain that economic scenario reactions – whether slow or accelerated – are felt in the labor market.
This is because companies tend to “curb the tremor” as much as possible, as employment and layoffs are expensive.
“In general, when the slowdown begins, companies, especially in the industry, tend to maintain the workforce for the longest possible period because they have a lot of scarcity of qualified workers,” explains Ulisses Ruiz de Gamboa, the economist at the Sao Paulo Commercial Association (ACSP).
“We will continue to notice a clear generation of jobs for a period of time even when the economy slows down, and therefore, unemployment will not be affected immediately,” he indicated.
Gilhery Gaboro, the chief economist in Wave Capital, notes that the data released last Wednesday (30) still reflect the dynamic observed in the country.
It is expected that the impact of the BC monetary policy is expected to reach the labor market in the second half of this year.
“Cooling Evidence”
“The labor market maintains evidence (…). Throughout the recent readings, we realize the expansion of the slowdown that was seen primarily in the Brazilian economy earlier,” says Andrea Valend, the coordinator of total economy research, in a statement after the disclosure.
“With a more clear standard of cooling, the following data will be important to understand whether the moderation cycle in the activity will be distinctive for soft landing or not, with a remembrance that the last cash pressure from BC must feel several quarters in the future,” concludes.
Although the conclusion is that the activity of the labor market follows historical standards, the expectation of economic agents was one of its highest levels.
In reading Caged, for example, it was expected to be the city center even because of February, it was a record month, With the opening of 431 thousand jobs.
The market is expected, however, as a result of about 200,000 vacancies. In the case of Inter, the bet was for 240,000 new vacancy.
“The economy slows down? The answer is yes, but slowly. It seems that the word” looks “in the middle, it is too early to say.”
Figuoredo enhances the fact that the labor market responds in a “backward” in an economic scenario, but it indicates that these disclosures help to form a series of data that showed this, albeit slowly, the economy.
In their recent decisions, and Copom Policy Committee (COPOM) BC is highlighted, on the one hand, Pressure from the labor market is heated as one of the factors that can affect the high inflation in the country.
On the other hand, it started to indicate the capabilities The economy slowed as one of the factors that can lead the council to a decrease in interest.
However, it should not affect the upcoming interest decision for COPOM on Wednesday (7).
“Since it is still in a high interest rate process, you should see a lot of data to create the scenario. All data are important, and this is the most late, not water gatherings,” says former BC director.
The hammer has struck that Copom’s “water gatherings” would be a much stronger slowdown in the economy and very benign inflation data, and this is not the case at the present time.
Although “inflation”, IPCA-15, Summary in April on the monthly marginIn the accumulated in 12 months, the index follows more than 5 %, where a roof of 4.5 % exploded BC’s 3 % inflation goal, which is 3 %.
Market expectations for high prices also track high, Despite the cooling in recent weeks.
However, the market sees a high Seic cycle near the end, despite the gradual and local data.
“The moment is what they call” precisely “, at the end of the operation, there should be no more than high levels. This is because the external environment requires caution, and when it takes it, it goes quietly.
Refer to the five signs that Brazil’s public accounts are at risk
