After publishing The first focus on Brazil influenza birds On a commercial farm in the interior of Rio Grande de Sol, on Friday (16), scientists say the country has the ability to maintain health security measures and ensure that the virus does not spread quickly.
The assertion of the high cause of cause (IAAP) in the Black Montecine (RS) brought anxiety to the productive sector and the market. The municipality is a strategy in the poultry chain, and is responsible for about 15 % of Brazilian chicken meat exports.
According to the authorities, measures have already been taken, such as healthy slaughter, tracking and eggs disposal, as well as an emergency decree in zoos for 60 days.
Researchers from Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (CEPEA) They reside that the sector has the ability to intensify health protocols and contain spread quickly.
The parliamentarian said: “The (government) position was fixed. The technical team has conducted a quick and rapid response to showing that there are no traces on other farms. The challenge now is to alleviate the influence on the international market.”
According to CEPEA, nearly a third of the Brazilian chicken meat is intended for export. China is slightly more than 10 % of external purchases, the European Union for about 4.5 %, and the additional Middle East countries account for 30 % of exports.
“It is necessary to wait for the Brazilian commercial diplomacy efforts, which must work to alleviate the siege zone in China and the European Union. The total suspension of poultry meat in the Brazil, stipulated in the contract, may also emerge as importers, given the effect that their consumers will make with non -consumers of the product.”
Only China, the European Union and Argentina have suspended chicken meat exports in Brazil, says the Ministry of Agriculture. However, the South American state maintained the import of Brazilian genetic materials.
The containment has already been adopted
The affected property, With about 17 thousand dual birdsHe had already been approved containing measures, such as healthy slaughtering, tracking contact and eggs disposal, as well as an emergency decree in zoos for 60 days.
The episode occurs in a sensitive moment for agricultural works. In 2024, Brazil formed 35 % of the trade of international chicken meat, with more than $ 10 billion in exports.
Countries such as Japan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are leading the list of buyers and the concern of investors from the siege measures that may be imposed.
According to Audax Capital President, Pedro Da Matta, the episode is actually pressing the production chain, with repercussions on prices, exports and the need for emergency credit by producers.
“Brazil is the largest source of chicken meat in the world, and such rings, even in adhering to dates, have global repercussions. There are already signs that some countries can temporarily review their imports, which tend to generate excess supply in the local market. This presses the prices of materials such as eggs and chicken, which tends to reduce the profitability of employees,” he said.
However, in the opinion of the Equus Capital partner, Felipe Vasconoslos, caution is required to read the market.
“The news like this usually fears and draws a lot of attention, but it is important to stop and analyze more calm. The Ministry of Agriculture and Health Monitoring always realizes the risks of disease, with very clear protocols to contain.
For him, reactions can mainly reach companies with strong exposure to the poultry series.
“Yes, there may be a short -term impact on companies in the sector, such as BRF, but there is also a great opportunity to see the market coverage for an event that is still controlled.”
The moment becomes more sensitive in the midst of advertising Footage between Marfrig and BRF, It was published on Thursday (15), which also transported the market. One of the main operations of companies is exactly the treatment of birds.
In this movement, Marfrig shares increased by more than 17 % on Friday, while BRF fell about 2 %, reflecting various reactions from investors, especially amid the uncertainty scenario about the mutation mode.
For CEPEA, export suspension by China and the European Union can have a density effect, not only on the chicken market, but also on pork, livestock and grains, such as corn chains.
“The issue is very recent and is still early for the specified scenarios,” the researchers reside.
CEPEA also evaluated that before confirming the focus, the local chicken market was firm prices for the product and wholesale, with good liquidity. The export of flow was one of the main pricing factors in the local market.
Vasconcellos also indicated that, even with a temporary ban, if the focus is present and the Brazilian maintains transparency with international partners, the trend is that the effects are limited.
“In such cases, we have already seen in the past that overcoming chicken in the local market can lead to a price reduction in prices, but it is still too early for any concrete drop,” he said.
Matta recommends that investors and agricultural business companies review the hedge and diversification strategies and access to credit lines.
“Agricultural business is still one of the Brazilian economy engines, but health rings such as this enhances the amount of financial risk management are an essential part of the sector’s sustainability,” he said.
