The uncertainty surrounding the US trading fees will cost the Europe and the British economy this year and next year, which cannot be fully compensated by increasing security costs by 2025.
According to the latest global S&P report, Economic uncertainty will reduce the economy14.6 billion euros accumulated in GDP between 2025 and 2026.
In its last economic forecast, 25% of fees were made before the notice was announced US car importedThe S&P Global reduced its previous expectations for the Europe by 2025 by this uncertainty.
Emea’s chief economist, Sylvin Prayer, said, “Euronaws Business,” said “uncertainty is more dangerous than the European economy -owned fees.” On the other hand, there are sprouts of hope in Europe. Thanks Financial stimulation in Germany and EUGDP will grow 1.4% by 2026.
How can US charges harm the European recovery?
Underlines that his forecast may change due to unpredictable political movements, he outlined many scenes to see The effect of possible fees In the economy of the constituency.
In the worst case, US charges are up to 25% more than all EU imports Regulating the growth of the GDP of the Europe 0.5% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026. In this case, the ECB has predicted that this year’s interest rates will be reduced by more than once and that experts will now raise them more than that.
Comment on the latest ads White HouseIt guarantees everyone’s 25% fees Cars and car parts. He said the extra 15% would have a limited effect on current figures.
“Germany will be more vulnerable Are the rest of the euro area, which is given High function From US car exports, about 1.5 times more than the European average, ”said the priest,” German production will decrease by 0.1% by 2025.
In the most positive view, Europe’s confidence is increasing, supported Interest rates and falling of inflationIt is translated into a continuous strength of the labor market. The expected financial stimulation, especially in the security sector, pays more confidence.
EU member states are likely to agree Increase in security costs 1% of GDP from 2026, which will increase the GDP of the Euro Zone by 2026, 0.2% in 2027 and 0.3% in 2028.
A potential ECP types rise to the horizon
From possible EU retaliation charges They do not appear to be significantly to increase inflation in the constituency at the time of the report, and the S&P Global Cuts the ECP again this year, up to 2.25% in April or June.
S&P Global ECP Start your basic interest rate In the second semester of 2026, with two planned increases, the deposit simplicity type reaches 2.75% by the end of next year. Wait for one Strong recovery of credit need And the financial stimulation advises that the economy will push the economy into a prolonged growth rate.
Prayer wrote that the risks of current forecasts include business uncertainty, failure to implement tax plans, and the indirect effects of the US economy, on the other side of the Atlantic. On the opposite side, plans Stimulation They may have more impact than expected Improve confidence rapidly.
UNIETTE Kingdam’s growth opportunities are almost half reduced
In another economic forecast, which focuses on the UK, which came before the fees on cars were announced, S&P Global reduced their expectations of their growth British economy 1.5% to 0.8%. Reduction in almost half of forecast This is explained by high inflation, the weakness of export levels and the control of cash policy. According to the statistics office, the British GDP will grow 1.1% by 2024.
According to Marian Amiet, the chief economist of the United Kingdom of the S&P global values, If the United Kingdom fails to eliminate fees Car exports to the United States may be affected by the recent announcement of 0.2% of GDP from the recently announced. “Automobile exports to the United States The largest business surplus source Bilateral products for the United Kingdom, “he said.
Uncertainty of trade, weakness in Europe and China and the strong value of the pound They control the country’s exportIt contributed 31% of national GDP by 2024. The weak growth of exports is also due to the high labor and energy costs for companies.
AdvertisementThe United Kingdom is the fourth largest security export of Europe in Europe
“Energy prices are still twice as much Prior to the Energy Crisis, there are many things that need to be embodied, “Amit ‘explains the’ Euro -Business’.
A segment protection that can be expected of demand acceleration at this time. The United Kingdom is the fourth largest security export of Europe in EuropeSo this may benefit from the increase in EU military spending in the coming years.
“It is not clear what the association will look like in the future, but seems to have a desire to cooperate in security. However we have seen it A part of EU expenditure excludes British companies“Amoid.”
What is the next movement of the UK Bank?
As the British government has left The lowest margin of financial intrigueThere is uncertainty whether the government will raise taxes, especially as the cost of credit service has increased.
Advertisement“Companies and homes are likely to wait a higher tax increase or some Additional cut of well -being. So it does not put in a good position to invest in companies and homes or to spend hope. ”
Meanwhile, the Prolonged growth of salaryNear 6% in December, it feeds on inflation, which puts the central bank under a difficult situation because growth is weak.
Las Inflation pressures Political leaders are bound, they are still cautious when they are cut, while investors are interested in less types.
Evolution for 2026
UK Bank He kept his reference interest rate as stable 4.5%at its last monetary policy meeting. The last inflation truth, 2.8%in February, gave the confidence for a cut, but most analysts agreed that prices would rise strongly in the coming months.
AdvertisementIn their predictions, S&P Global believes that UK cuts the bank types Up to 4% at the end of the third quarter of 2025. However, they forecast decreases in lower types than previous forecast, and are waiting for firm inflation.
By 2026, growth is expected to accelerateBy predicting an increase of 1.6% of economic production. “By restoring regional growth, things are well drawn up by 2026, The new descent of the types 50 base points and inflation will go up to 2.5%, ”the report says.
