The Tax Commission has selected Do not touch its growth predictions for this 2025 Spain. But warns that the enormous uncertainty for the Commerce War was unleashed Duty of Donald Trump In uncertainty I can advise a good Reganaso for the Spanish economy. Thus, the Alef It is intact Start The national 2.5% of this 2025 will progress, which will continue to be on the brink of the consumption of families in an environment where employment continues to be created. However, in the worst business war situation, GDP may occur in both 2025 and 2026 in GDP If the situation is not adjusted quickly. It is an August that adds to the notification of the Bank of Spain Wednesday Its growth will reduce predictions Next predictions in the gym.
He Shock The fees unleashed by the US administration are not incorporated into its predictions because it is still unusual to exchange it. “We don’t know what’s going to happen in the business war. It is very difficult to combine the impact associated with fees. We know the starting point, but not the point of arrival, “Esther Cordo, Director of the Economic Analysis Division explained.” Until this is not confirmed, we will not change it to our situation because it is complex and changes, ”he added.
In recent days, the visual fluctuations, with big fluctuations in the markets. Wednesday announcement BaSaba for 90 days of US administration Besides China, most of the “mutual” fee that is poorly known to most countries will become a situation. In fact, The 180 -degree twist on Wednesday will benefit European companies. “The consequences are many. Yesterday’s decision leaves us in a better position against China. European products have been tested about their own. That is why it is very difficult to combine any effect on forecasts,” Gordo said.
The direct impact of the fees for Spain, in principle, will be defined by the lower business contacts between the United States. Nevertheless, fields such as olive oil or some equipment may be better affected. However, in the economies of Germany and Italy, the fee conspiracy can be indirectly affected by Spain.
In addition to the business channel, The uncertainty created by Trump’s aggressive policy will affect investment results. The fluctuation of the markets is not a good reproduction to make investment decisions, which can be harmful to the growth of the global economy.
For now, the effects Shock Business in the short -term indicators is not yet felt. Eref Real -Time GDP forecast model assesses it In the first quarter of the year, the economy will grow 0.8%, Maintaining a strong rhythm of progress registered in 2024.
