World Bank Mexico reduces economic outlook, predicts stagnation

The World Bank has called its 2025 economic growth prediction to Mexico as “the highest trade uncertainty in a decade.”

The Washington -based International Finance Institute has now predicted that the Mexican economy will be stagnant with the growth of 0% GDP by 2025.

The forecast World Bank is 1.5 percent lower than its global economic opportunities report.

The new forecast has been included in a A copy of the chapter of the upcoming World Bank Report “Organized crime and violence in Latin America and Caribbean” will be released next Monday.

In 29 Latin American and Caribbean (LIC) countries, Haiti is predicted to record a worse economic outcome than Mexico this year. The World Bank predicts that the economy of the complex Caribbean will shrink 2.2% by 2025.

At the other end of the quantity, Guyana’s economy will grow 10% and Argentina will register 5.5% economic expansion.

The World Bank for Mexico has promoted its growth forecast only after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reduced its view of Latin America’s second largest economy. The International Monetary Fund has now predicted that Mexico’s GDP will shrink this year by 0.3%The downward correction of 1.7 percent points compared to the January forecast.

The Mexican economy increased by 1.5% annually by 2024.

‘The most challenging outward scene’

The World Bank also reduced its growth view of the Mexican economy in 2026. The growth of 1.1% of the next year is now predicted, which was 1.6% in January.

In the “The State of the Lock Regional” chapter of its upcoming report, the World Bank’s vision for the region is very uncertain, as moderate improvements in the inner front are increased by a very challenging external situation. ”

“… External Environment… October 2024 Latin America and Caribbean Economic Review (Laser) have changed significantly with short and long -term effects in the first six months,” the financial institution said.

“… The transparent change towards the highest fees of the United States has uncertainty Nearby Shoring ProjectThe practice of bringing maritime operations to nearby or allies, and the global market access, in general, “the World Bank said.

“… There was evidence that the area was not close to the boat, before the increased uncertainty introduced by Rising US fees,” the bank said.

In the three months after Donald Trump began his second term as president, the US government has imposed fees for steel, aluminum and cars and the USMCA free trade agreement made in Mexico.

The Mexican government is currently trying to negotiate exclusion from steel, aluminum and vehicle fees, which has imposed imports from all over the world.

The World Bank said, “It is not known where the new payment regime will settle.”

For now, it said, “The highest fees and the highest trade uncertainty in a decade are preventing further integration of the region in US distribution chains and vulnerable jobs in export -related industries.”

The World Bank has highlighted it Mexico recently signed a new trade agreement with the EUAnd “refers to a step to diverse the markets.”

However, “the growing challenges must be addressed for decades in infrastructure, education, regulatory, competitive and tax policy, which should be addressed for a decade now, which should increase both productivity and new uncertainty.”

Shinbam takes the issue with World Bank forecast

At a press conference on Thursday morning, President Claudia Shinebham expressed his disagreement on the economic forecasts of international organizations such as the World Hunnel, the International Monetary Fund and the OECD, ie. The Mexican economy is predicted this year.

International financial institutions are “there are economic models that do not take into account what we are doing,” She said that.

Sheinbam said that if their models were established, “there will be a recession in Mexico” due to the “economic coordination” between the two countries, if they establish their models, “there is going to be inflation and economic recession in the United States.”

He stressed that “everything is not yet determined” in the US trade relations with other parts of the world, and that it has not been “not taken into account with Mexico,” in particular with Mexico, “with Mexico,” in particular to its northern neighbors. “

Returning to his first claim, Shinbam said that international organizations have failed to consider Mexico project.

The World Bank said in its statement that public investment in Mexico “supported the expansion of gross investment and publication by 2023.” When the Mexican economy grew 3.2% – “But because it lost the speed in 2024, this stimulation was weakened.”

Although major projects, such as Maya Rail and New Pemex refinery on the beach, are now completed, Shinbam hopes that his government’s investment in Mexico will help stimulate growth in other infrastructure projects including highway, rail, water and housing.

“If there is no public investment, there may be a reduction in economic growth,” he said on Tuesday that the IMF forecasts.

On Thursday, Shinbam also highlighted the economic benefits of private investment.

The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund “Don’t take into account probably” $ 3.6 billion to invest in the fever company Grubo Matto Mexico Or other private investment in the pipeline, he said.

Shinbam Ministry of Finance – This is the Mexican economy Grow 1.5-2.3% this year – “Taking all these variables into account” so it comes with “completely different results.”

“… Mexico’s economy is strong and the entire cabinet operates so that Mexico becomes a reality,” he added.

Mexico needs economic data

Mexico News Daily Chief Employee Writer Peter Davis ((Email protected))