The chances of stagnation in the United States may increase – but these increasing risks do not mean that the deep economic crisis is a hasty conclusion.
However, this did not prevent the markets from excessive excitement, consumer confidence and companies that must be shaken, especially after President Donald Trump said he could not exclude this possibility, or when members of the Council of Ministers indicated that the “period of detoxification” is coming and that the comprehensive policies of the government – including long rates and mass decline in work and federal spending – compassion “, even if they caused stagnation.
However, research shows that stagnation can have profound negative consequences for people, companies and societies, which not only last but in some cases irreversible.
“What do we win from the recession? We have unemployment, we have a simple income, we have CNN In an interview.
Although there are no completely equal periods, they share the common characteristics, according to the International Monetary Fund: it lasts about a year; Economic production, consumption and commercial activity decreases; Unemployment increases; Real estate values and shares are eroded; Financial markets are under disturbances. And inflation slows down through the low demand.
Although the effects of such a crisis can vary greatly, people with low income are the most affected, and only current conflicts increase.
The economist said: “In a manner that is not commensurate, they tend to be more deprived than the workers who are thrown from side to side in a bad job market, and they suffer from unemployment rates much higher.” “Young people also suffer a lot in these periods, especially because of the phenomenon of” the last rental, which was first launched.
More poorest results and a shorter life
Hans Shuant, the economist and economists who have studied these results closely, said the effects can be especially harmful and permanent for people who enter the labor market that studies newly graduated and middle -aged workers.
For example, during the recession period 1981-1982, the labor market enters at that time, not only tested short-term salary cuts-an exacerbated effect for non-whiten workers, but also suffered from worse economic, social and health results in the following decades, according to the Shuant research.
In addition to low long -term gains, “you see low wedding rates, a high divorce rate, low income couples”, and a fewer children. “Then, at the mid -thirty years, we start seeing health effects arise, increasing disability rates, then we see the death rates increase.”
“The expected life is the lowest of these groups,” he added.
Although there are arguments that the fluctuations of the commercial cycle and papers can achieve benefits for some individuals or economic results, these events cause suffering and difficulties for others, Xuant said.
“When it comes to the cost of these temporary fluctuations, we see that certain groups are permanently reached,” he said.
“I did not have an economy worth it.”
Gold said the recession has been proven to weaken workers for years.
“Let’s say that you graduate during the recession and you cannot get a job in the area you studied and have many college debts,” I noticed. “It may be very harmful to get the right track and make your career take off.”
This was the case Laura Natal.
She graduated from the University of Portland in May 2008 with a series of federal and private student loans and entered the labor market as employment was declining to record levels.
“I got a job at a call center and I was getting $ 13 per hour,” she said. “Student loans started winning and I hope to pay $ 1,300 per month. I was in a state of default.”
With the deepening of the recession and the unemployment grew, the interests and fines on Natale loans increased much faster than their ability to apply for jobs with better wages.
She said: “I worked hard and went home, paid all my bills, left $ 100, and perhaps $ 200 for this month for shopping, gasoline and everything else.” “I had no economy worth it. I was saving a rental payment, and it was a salary.”
After about 17 years, Natal has a good and happy job with her balance between personal and professional life, but the remaining debts of the student loan are still wonderful, and the effects of the great recession are still another.
“If this recession is not, I think the options will be much larger,” she said. “It took me years to get to the point of getting anything in my method that deserves a job of $ 30,000 a year.”
Check safety networks
The great recession was so deep and the financial crisis was so important that it took years until the economy would completely recover.
Gold said it was difficult for people to return to the tracks.
“I think we have learned that austerity is what really resulted in delaying healing,” she said. “In epidemic recovery, this is not what we sought, and for this reason we had such a quick recovery.”
Gold from the personal protection equipment said that the wave of cuts made and suggested at the federal level can eventually weaken programs designed to help people in times of necessity.
“Many people live on a salary salary, and this administration is looking for all types of cuts in the safety network, and this is especially concerned,” he pointed out.
“If you are asked to get a job (such as rehabilitation of benefits), and you cannot find a job regardless of what you do – if the unemployment rate shoots without your mistake – get a job to be able to ensure these benefits simply.”
Harvey, an economist at the University of Texas Christian, said, for this purpose, it could mean the current austerity approach adopted by the Trump administration problems for all the health of the economy and the current recovery if things increase.
“A lot of attention is paid in definitions and trade, but for me the frightening is a reduction in government spending,” he said. “This is almost similar to these medieval treatments, where suffering is believed to lead to treatment.”
“But this is simply incorrect. Suffering only generates more suffering.”
Most of the entrepreneurs fear the economic scenario in 2025