Stock markets They are shaken by unstable nature Increases uncertainty for companies involved in world distribution chains Notice of important fees By the US government. The European Union is now facing a 20% fee for export to the United States. Among other countries, China (34%), Japan (24%) and India (26%) will be used for higher fees.
United Kingdom, Brazil, Australia and Turkey They will face the lowest payment rate 10%, Canada and Mexico have been excluded for goods that meet the USMCA contract. But when the exporters are ready for the blow, Washington’s shocking action can be Do not mean economic problems for consumers.
In fact, Can reduce national productsAt least in the short term. In the center of this matter, there is an Europe’s prolonged business surplus with the United States. According to the European Commission, the European Union exported 503.8 billion to euros to the United States by 2023 and imported 347 200 million euros, which shows the business surplus of 156.6 billion.
When it comes to services, Panorama changes: Europe imported 427.3 billion euros and exported 318.7 billion. Most of the imports of services Linked to American technology giants. Nevertheless, the European Union maintains a positive global business surplus with the United States.
This background is important. Yes The United States impresses 20% public fees For EU products, its impact will be proportional to European exporters. In equal words, European products 20% of their most important markets are very importantThe result is the risk of loss of competition.
An Italian Regiono Formigiano Chakra or French wine bottle, for example, suddenly 20% of a sloping For us consumers. European cars, in particular, may be very vulnerable. With some Car charges already reaches 25%Extra 20% of competitiveness can be emitted from American vendors.
Summary of export to internal surplus
America refers to roughly 12% of the total exports of the EUThat is, it is almost impossible to change that request overnight. As the US demand declines, shares will be concentrated in Europe and elsewhere. This means More available products As for the national market, this can lead to low discounts and prices for European consumer.
In the short term, it may trigger companies Download excess stock in national marketsFeeding for price competition and potential discounts. At the same time, the European market runs the risk To be flooded by products of other large export countriesChina, Japan and India are facing strong business sanctions in the United States.
This wave can add world delivery Multiply and intensify the availability Downward pressure on prices across the continent. In other words, a business shock that weakens the external need can translate into a normal inflation within Europe – at least temporarily.
Which products may reduce the price?
The European business surplus with the United States is very concentrated in a few major sectors. The Drug products 57,000 million surplus, which are closely followed by this list For vehiclesAccording to data from the International Trade Center, with 44,000 million euros.
The drink industry contributes more 8,000 million euros 5.4 billion in ships and ships. Luxury items – including leather products, clothing and footwear – throw 9,000 million euros. If the demand from the US market is weakened, these sectors are at risk of accumulating stocks.
In the short term, European consumers They can benefit from cheap prices Drug products, vehicles, clothing and food and even drinks.
Real inflation risks are now moderate
One of the main inflation stimulants for Europe in recent years This is the cost of energySince the volume often depends on energy imports. In 2024, Europe imported 700,000 million euros in energy -euros -including natural gas and refined fuels -resulting in this result 346,000 million euros shortage of business In the field.
However, the first market reactions for Trump fees say that Inflation fears attached to the energy are noticedNot accelerated. Thursday crude prices fell more than 3%, and the European reference natural gas Dutch fell 2%, considering the expectation that the world demand would be reduced due to the lowest commercial activities.
Meanwhile, the concern of the euro’s strong depreciation Can feed on inflation Operated by imports. On the contrary, the euro has been strengthened, up to 1.5% against the dollar to 1.10, and indicates a maximum of six months.
AdvertisementIn short, American products are a small part of European consumer shopping baskets compared to the reverse condition. Surprisingly, European consumers They may be on the winning side of A World Trade War Otherwise, it is tough.
