According to a wide range of economists, European Central Bank (ECB) will reduce interest rates In the coming months, its moderate policy is strengthened by a Recession environment The growth and intensity of world business tensions.
The consensus among experts indicates a new 75 Basic relaxation At the next three ECP meetings, the deposit type fell up to 1.5% in September. With 25 base points cut on Thursday, within seventh year, the ECB depot has been 2.25%, which is the lowest level since January 2023.
Although this action was widely expectedIt was the tone of the ruling council report and a press conference after the meeting, which promoted high relaxation forecasts.
“The tone of the report and the press conference It was moderate, “said John-Balon von de Gerk, chief economist of ABN Amro Euro Zone. Financial markets“And” geo -political tensions “showed that political leaders would prefer to prioritize the support of development.
Although ECP President Christine Lagard. The fact that the result was finally unanimous Underline the speed of changing the opinion of the chief of the ECP.
The currency markets embraced a mild ECP posture. Los ‘swabs’ One day, descendants used by operators about the future evolution of interest rates, 66 -Faint cuts are now forecast The Basic and June meeting for 2025 has already been planned 22 basic points.
How far does interest rates decrease in the euro zone?
The market focus is now focusing on the depth of the rotation of these cuts. Carston Praski, the global macro economist of the ING, said the Lagard Report It showed “more urgent feeling.” Considering external and internal challenges, such as the recession and growth of inflation and growth.
“The main issue of the ECP It will be Exceptionally high level uncertaintyWith the risk of reaching its inflation, “Brezesky said,” The deposit is reduced to 1.75% in September.
Tanske bank researchers are still looking for big cuts. Although they insisted that the next economic data wasIn particular, the general trend is relaxed, guiding the short -term policy, in particular. “We still have the ECP. At 25 basic points at the next meetings, the type of deposits will be 1.50% in September 2025. ”
In particular, Tanske Bank believes that even a pair of weak data of the manager’s index (BMI) purchased in April or May may push the ECP to speedy relaxation, 50 basic points in June. In the opinion of Kian Marco Salziolin, who is responsible for the global market strategy of Indeza Sanpoolo, “The atmosphere is pasist and distrustful Almost everywhere, in words, and the actions of the Frankfurt ruling council. “
“Though the story It still depends on the path, a window is opened, thus reduces the deposit to 2%and reduces to 2.25%after being reduced, ”he said.
Business tensions hide the perspectives
Although in the field inflation Services have begun to send in recent months, and the general pressure on prices is above the goal, which further complicates the ECP’s disbelief turn. Now the broad economic panorama He is the one who focused on the attention of the governing body.
Goldman Sachz’s economist Sven Jari Stehn described and pointed out that Thursday’s message was “mostly moderate” The growing concern of the in charge of the For weak growth opportunities of the euro zone. They pointed out the “marked” lack of inflation of the services, and they said that the impact of business tensions in inflation was clear, “Stehan said.
Goldman cuts a new 25 basic points on June 5th, followed by a reduction in July and September, which is 1.5%of the deposit. The bank also outlines a relaxation environment The most aggressive, with the probability of 30%, in which the ECB can reduce faster. It depends on the increase in world trade war, some data of the euro -regional operation are significantly weak or can cause a recession in the United States, which can cause RAmals type cuts by Federal Reserve.