At the beginning of the report, on April 13 and 14, 2024, indicated Iran shot 180 Balistic missiles170 drones and dozens of travel missiles against Israel Unattended and dark war with Israel Always changes the equation in the Middle East.
Israel responded to Tehran’s unprecedented attack Five days later, on April 19, 2024, the S -300 air defense system, which protects Iran’s nuclear facilities in Isahan, hit the system. The Israeli government of April 2024Unlike the October of that year, he never considered the attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, but the first direct military conflict set the foundations for later and more severe conflict.
Although the final result of these events is already clear, ‘Jerusalem Post’, he first described all the details In between discussions and conflicts Benjamin Netanyahu In David Bornia (Chairman of the War Cabinet).
After the second attack of Iran On October 1, 2024, Israeli officials held similar conversations against Israel against Israel, but this time on June 9, 2024, the Cands and Ishenkot, who was outside the government, They are not in the decision.
The third conversation between Israeli officials took place after October 26, 2024, before Donald Trump entered the White House. Day Gallen had been abandoned in practice When Netanyahu rejected him on November 5, 2024; Only Halevi, Paranya and a few important consultants were in the decision.
The main feature of the time was that Israel realized that it could suddenly destroy it Iran nuclear facilities Almost any time I wanted, Iran’s S -300 had previously worried about the ability of the Air Force to master the S -300 air security agencies and advise adequate amplitude for nuclear purposes. However, Israel was back, and at that time, it refused to launch a major attack.
Defined counter attack
Many people who are significant to decide They moderated their ideas During these conflicts, in general, in April 2024, Eyenkot and Condus were very worriedAnd Israel’s response to prevent the intensification of the chain of mutual attacks should continue to be limited.
Netanyaku was also worried A little more severe reactionsBut he was more interested in accepting Eyencot and Cantes. This status shifts indicates that he has more confidence in using military force Military operations in Gaza and John Unis.
David BorniaIt usually plays a premature role in Iran -related issues in Israel’s security apparatus, Supported the definitive military responseBut he emphasized the need to gain US support for Israel’s decision and its vast war purposes. Galend and Holowe maintained the most obvious positions in the counter attack. In the end, Netanyahu joined his positions, and even the Constitors supported the attack, unlike Eyencot S -300 system in Isahan.
They changed the status after Iran’s attack on October 1
After the second Iranian attack, The positions were changed to some extent; Galend and Holowe continued to argue for an aggressive attitude, but this time they were reluctant to attack the Iranian nuclear program Do not lose Washington’s support.
Netanyahu, rather, has become very aggressive At all ends, considering the proximity of the US elections and the benefits of Trump in the census with greater willing to face the government. However, Israel needs more US help His allies to defend himself from attacks with Iranian missiles and thanks to Washington on October 1 are part of the equation.
Besides, Israel needed US approval Fly in some countries of the Middle East with the aim of attacking Iran. Bornia continued to protect the relatively aggressive approach, but always emphasized the need to block Washington’s mate.
How did Israel decide on S -300 organizations and Iranian nuclear power objectives on October 26?
Israeli attack On October 26, Tehran is against four S300 anti -aircraft security agencies, dozens of goals relating to the production of ballistic missiles and airborne security and Parking is a nuclear power plant They reduced Iran’s missile capacity to 14 new missiles per week as a missile per week.
‘Jerusalem Post’, according to the estimates, describes in its report It is one or two years to restore the ability. In the following statement we read: “The attack was the most vulnerable on the impact of the Iran’s nuclear program for Israeli Air Force, Raders, Intercept Systems and Aerial Protection.”
But, Why Israel did not immediately carry out a decisive attack October 27 against the Iran’s nuclear program, or in the space of Trump at Trump on October 26 and January 20? The answer to the question was in two other ends: Hezbolla and Hamas; Although Israel has a great opportunity to establish a direct conversation with Iran, it will be a serious shooting on other ends until the change of power in the United States and beyond.
- North: Hesbole shot and killed hundreds of rockets against Israel a day, some of which reached central parts. Israel was beneficial in this exchange I could not face the size of the shooting and hesbolla missiles indefinitely.
- South: Despite the decline in Hamas’s capabilities, the group was a threat, which returned to homes near the border with Gaza. In addition, about 100 hostages (Half of them were alive) Hamas was left to Hamas.
At the same time, ballistic missiles Yemen Hudis rebels They forced millions of Israelis to take refuge in the Tel Aviv and central areas.
Eliminates other threats to focus on Iran
Senior officers The Israelites had to desperate other threats before taking any important action against Iran (this would lead to many waves between two parts to exchange ballistic missiles). The higher the fire with Hesbollah was delayed until November 27, even after that, Israel had to pay special attention To maintain us support for the post -war order in Lebanon, thus preventing the country’s military from returning to Lebanon’s south of Lebanon.
On the one hand, Agreement with Hamas to release some hostage Until January 19 (a day before Trump had to hold) a high fire was not functioning, and on the other hand, there were national and international tensions to sign another similar agreement in November 2023. Israel needed the support of Biden and Trump to sign the agreement, and if it was involved in the war with Iran, the agreement It would not have been finished.
Why Israel is not in a hurry?
Some researchers believe that Netanyaku deliberately delayed the contract With Hamas, as long as Trump has to define the conditions of high fire after a fire in the structure of Hamas’s total elimination structure. Israel does not want to offer Gaza was openly directed by the Palestinian Authority And be active in the environment of Hamas.
In addition, senior Israeli officials and Mossad believed that Trump would be ready for a large -scale attack against Iran’s nuclear power facilities in mid -2012, so there was no need to rush. In addition, the relative was missing Hoodis’s threat after the contract with Hamas Newly elected attacks in the United States against Yemen have given Israel a greater edge of maneuvering.
A computational error in terms of Trump
However, Israeli authorities do not predict TrumpIn October 2024, they asked them to attack Iran’s nuclear program, and then he would resign in 2025, and finally, he would be a blindfold Weak Bashkal Nuclear Agreement with Iran.
If Israel had given the opportunity of such a situation, perhaps some The authorities would have been in favor of the attack During the change between Bidan and Trump. However, some people believe that the backward is a fire with Hesbollah, Hamas and Hoodis had more strategic importance Temporarily lose the chance to attack Iran.
These sources suggest that Israel has prevented Iran from getting nuclear weapons for decades The use of secret media It can be done again. In addition, if they really want to use the new and weak contract for the faster weapon to get the nuclear weapon, the Air Force can still interfere and attack them in a timely manner. Finally, no Israeli official has yet to announce this, but even a moderate nuclear deal may earn time for Israel; The first time after 2019, when Iran abandoned the restrictions of JCPOA, This may delay the Iranian nuclear improvement.
The scene is the best situation to destroy the Iran’s nuclear program with a massive military attack, which is a long way to be offered to Israel on October 26. However, this agreement is not very favorable This may be a more desirable achievement than any other agreement that the administration has reached Bidan before Iran is in Israel’s live scenes.