We start the United States and Brazil in interest decisions in the event of uncertainty

This Tuesday (6) begins a series of central bank meetings in the United States and Brazil to determine the following steps of interest, which will be published in Superquarta.

The meetings occur amid a high level of global uncertainty, especially with the effects Customs tariff war Intensify Donald Trump In early April.

Here, expecting is that Copom Policy Committee (COPOM) Do Panco Central (BC) Take a new increase in CelicCurrently 14.25 % annually, but to a lesser degree to the last meetings. The decision should leave after 18 hours.

Indeed in the United States, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Federal Reserve (Fed) publishes his decision in 15h (Brazilia time).

Market betting mostly in maintaining rates at the current level of 4.25 % chair Jerome PowellAt 3:30 pm, which can give more clues about new discounts throughout this year.

The decision on SELIC expects what will be the direction made by the team led by British Columbia President Gabriel Galliplo.

While the Federal Reserve depends on data in different directions of the American economy and Donald Trump’s pressure on the head of the local central bank.

According to the March Copom meeting, it is expected that there will be a height of less than 1 percentage point. What is uncertain is what this rise will be and what will be subsequent comments, and it is usually issued a week after the Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

Most of the market is betting on an increase of 0.5 points, raising interest rates to 14.75 % annually, and shows data from B3. If this is confirmed, SELIC will reach the biggest step since 2006.

The market predictions captured by the Focus Bulletin, which was published on Monday, reinforces 0.5 points this week and a new increase of 0.25 at the meeting scheduled in June, where he played interest to 15 %.

However, before the end of the year, the BC should start to cut, reduce 0.25 points and close 2025 with SELIC by 14.75 %.

For the next year, expectation is the benefit of 12.5 %.

What weighs COPOM is Uncertainty from the Brazilian economy Due to the federal government decisions to inject money by launching credit for workers who have an official contract, which leads the population, and thus, the population leads to spending and feeding inflation.

In the international scenario, Customs tariff war It was started by US President Donald Trump, as it does not bring answers to how the Brazilian economy was affected in the medium term, as well as moving the expectations of US activities.

The Federal Reserve Bank has already cited the economic directives of Trump as challenges in the work of the monetary authority to follow their goals of generating job opportunities and controlling control..

In response, the Republican raised the tone to An indication that you can request the Powell resignationIncreasing market fluctuation, which was already very troubled by the trade conflict with China.

However, Trump indicated that he had declined by saying on Monday that he expected to close the central bank’s mandate at the end of 2026.

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