A great risk wave extended World markets This Monday, with the US variable income Sink into the Pasist territory And echoing his European opposition trend, while President Trump’s new fees shake the investors’ confidence.
He S & P 500 Future Schedule Fell down 5,000 -Below the door of the file During mid -functioning in Europe, February 2025 refers to a decline of more than 20% from February 2025. This may indicate the official entrance of the S&P500 in the area of the fascist market, which joined the Nastock 100, which crossed the gate last Friday.
If the last three sessions are considered, S&P 500 is expected to fall 12.5%It Stimulates comparisons Con The most dramatic fall in modern historyThe collapse of October 2008 and Black Monday, 1987.
“President Donald Trump’s decline in the US variable income after announced his new charges Will be remembered in historical booksIn a note on Monday, BPVA market strategist Alejandro Quatrado said in a note on Monday, as it caused the fourth largest decline in two days of S&P 500 since it was created in 1957. “The markets are clearly entered New Increased Increased Disammament Phase“He said more.
Tesla Inc’s operations are less than 5% of the operations before the market opened, which puts this activity on the face of the maximum reach of 2024 to a maximum of more than 50%. So-called so-called ‘Seven wonderful‘Bhaktan’ What, in addition to the company Elon Musk This includes Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp, Amazon.com, Alphabet, Meta Plants and Nvidia- more than $ 2 billion in stock market capital. Friday, AppleThe most valuable company in the world has recorded 15% loss in three sessions, which has been its biggest fall since October 2008.
World markets decline as the risk of recession increases
Las Asian markets They were suffering Historical losses: Hong Kong Hang Cheng Index 13% collapsed at nightIts worst daily results from the 1997 Asian financial crisis, Japanese Nikki provided more than 8%of more than 8%.
Las European bags They followed their example in the morning: Stocks 50 Euro 4%, German Docs 3.5%and losses in Southern Europe were expedited: FTSE MIP 4.8%, IPX 35 4.3%and French CAC 40 4.1%.
Investors are ready Domino effects In economies that depend on business, business benefits and global inflation mechanics. JP According to Morgan’s, now a 60% probability of recession in the United States Worldwide, citing the risks of new fees on the country’s inflation pressures, at the same time stimulates a cycle of revenge on security policies.
Goldman Sachz’s chief economist John Hotgius has also reviewed his opportunities, raising the probability of recession in the United States from 35% to 45% for 12 months. In a note released on Monday, Hxseus quoted the financial conditions, the increase in the increase Geo And signs of falling in business investment. “The boycotts of foreign consumers and the upcoming collapse of commercial confidence may have hit more difficult than thought of capital expenses,” he said.
If everything is Duty The announcement, Goldman, expects the US tariff rate to increase by approximately 20 percent, even after taking into account possible exclusion or future negotiations. “Then we hope to change our forecast to the recession,” Hadgius added.
Europe’s mess: revenge or control?
In Brussels, Authorities A Very good linePolitical leaders face the pressure on responding. “Trump fees are a global trade war report. This may be a calculated negotiation: Starting strongly and then retreating. But what works in corporate negotiations often fails in the geopolitical political field,” said the Macro Economist Professor of St. Galle. Gallan “International Relationships Depends on Foundation, Trust and Dedications, Shared with Terms, No Shock therapy“.
Professor of the same university’s international administration, Domas Clutted Casas, said the EU had to avoid raising its response as an eye war for an eye and instead of focusing on it. Empty. “The political purpose of Brussels should be avoided to deepen economic pain and to avoid inflation among a European audience who are already tense and intensely.”
Bill Divini, the leader of ABN Amro’s Macro Economic Research, said the potential use of the recently introduced constituency Reaction tool (ACI) The legal instrument that allows specific counter -measures against countries that use economic insistence is vague. Divine warned of the increase in products, especially the European economy, from Asian exporters.
Andrea Milani, the strategic of the types of Indeza Sanpoolo, said Cash principle It is now depending on whether it is now Central banks And Priority for growth or inflation. “In the coming months, the direction of the currency policy depends on the growth of the central banks, whether it is more concerned about shock or inflation of fees,” Milani said. “Powell, the president of the Central Bank, has spent the importance of the fee consequences as a ‘medieval time’, but the same word is the cost of facing him in the individual period.”
