The 10 % new customs tariffs impose by Donald Trump on Brazil can explain the growth of Brazilian exports, especially in the similar and semi -semi -sectors taken, according to the disabled analysts in BTG. However, this measure brings risks in a possible global slowdown scenario.
Since Trump imposes higher rates on other markets, 46 % for Vietnam and 26 % of India, for example, the movement may prefer some Brazilian sectors capable of running market slides in the United States formerly dominated by competitors, who will now pay higher prices, BTG IANA FerRãO and Pedro Oliveira in a Friday report. However, they may be present in the United States market.
Some of the Brazilian economy sectors have significant dependence on American sales. Among them, iron and steel (71.8 % of exports to the United States, has already undergone the rates of 25 % in force since March 12); Air and spatial compounds (63.2 %); Motors and machinery (61.9 %); Building materials (57.9 %).
Other sectors with an inappropriate BTG exposure include ethanol (16.0 %), coffee (16.7 %) and chemicals (16 %). “Among the listed sectors, it tends to have the highest segment of competitors in countries that are now punishable at higher rates to benefit from this scenario,” says BTG.
“The commodity sectors, especially agriculture and minerals, can benefit from opportunities to accommodate markets that ultimately lacks revenge on business partners,” analysts note. China has already announced that it will split Trump and impose 34 % rates on American imported products.
Risk
However, Trump’s new commercial policy includes important risks to Brazil, the United States and the global economy, warns BTG. “New measures can lead to revenge and contribute to a wider commercial war, which affects global activity.”
In this context, Brazil can be affected, although “losses tend to be less severe than those facing countries provided to higher rates,” according to the report. BTG emphasizes that the net effect depends on the intensity of the global slowdown that may occur in this new upper tariff environment. Yesterday, the World Trade Organization (WTO) came to predict global trade this year after the highest rates.
An additional risk of Brazil, highlighting BTG analysts, comes from the exposure of Brazilian foreign trade to China, which is the main destination for export in the country for several years. The reason is that the intensification of trade tensions between us and China can lead to a more clear slowdown in the Chinese economy. So Beijing can reduce the demand for Brazilian products and the prices of international commodities will decrease. The report notes, “that would reduce the relative feature that Brazil can get in this new context.”