Notice Donald Trump To impose fees 20% for European Shipment Economists have led them to reduce them The growth prediction of the euro zoneInstant warning World down With serious regional effects.
In general, experts agree that the impact of fees is weight Consumption And InvestmentCaring for inflation is likely to go background to face the deterioration of dynamics. This change reinforces in favor of arguments European Central Bank (ECP) Accelerate your cycle Cut -typeIt will take place in April.
Banks see the risks of stagnation
ABN Amro economists, led by the leader of the Macro Economic Analysis Bill TV, have now foretold the European economic activity significantly reduced. “The EU is affected by 20%of the fee. We hope this will be a strong The fall of exports to the United States In the coming months, we will significantly reduce our growth forecast by 2025, ”the team said.
According to the Dutch Bank, the quarterly growth is expected to be close to zero in the short term, with the strong probability of compression, the consequences of expectation may cover the precise moment. “We hope that the third quarter will occur in the lowest growth point”Said the divine. “Recovery must collect the impulse in 2026 starting at the end of the fourth quarter”.
Any regeneration depends on the possibility of a partial payment relief by the United States, he said that the distraction of trade, he said. Alternative markets And Government intervention If the economic conditions worsen sharply.
What happens to inflation?
As for inflation, ABN offers that Amro fare impact and resulting in a decrease in world demand That is the risk of inflation Do not reach the 2% target set by the ECB, especially due to the underlying pressure Energy prices.
Bank of America economists echoed these concerns and assessed it US charges can reduce the growth of global GDP Of the 50 base points, up to 1.5 percent of the US GDP can be affected, and the China and the Euro Zone are one percent point and 40-60 base points.
Bank of America believes that the inflation effects of EU retaliations will be relatively insignificant 10% increase in fees in US imports. It will raise public inflation at about five basic points, and is based on inflation at 10 basic points. “In the end, the growth losses of GDP will be easily dominated in that first round,” said Ruben Sekura Kayuwela de Bank of the United States.
He said further coordinating expectations for payment relaxation: “Our confidence in a cut in April is further increased”. The bank expects a series of cuts until a type of tank is reached in September.
The “tsunami” was unleashed by US fees.
The overall macro economy in charge of the ING, Carston Praski, compared to a “tsunami” The thirteen protectionism. “20% of the US mutual fees about the EU can be harmful.
But the damage, Bresky, emphasized, beyond the business volume. “Let’s think about Side effects of hope These fees are already European consumers and companies.
Panel Goldman SachsDirected by Sven Jari Stehn, the downward risks are growing. “By 2025, the forecast of our reference growth has already accepted the total impact of 0.7% of trade related to trade, and it is below the consensus of the ECB experts and below March predictions,” they said.
“The notified fees were greater than expected in Europe and Asia, and gave the strong language of the US administration. Increased risk of increasing business tensions“The group wrote, a warning of technical recession in a downward situation.
Goldman’s inflation predictions are also reviewedA reason Strong euro Already an impossible trigger derived from the restoration of business flows, especially from Asia. The bank now sees a series of ECB cuts, waiting for the deposit to reach 1.75% in July, and describes a cut in April as “very possible.”
