The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has now predicted that the Mexican economy will shrink in 2025 as US President Donald Trump continued its “US first” security guard.
The Washington DC -based financial institution expects the Mexican economy to shrink on Tuesday by 0.3%, which is a 1.7% downward correction of 1.7% of the January forecast.
International Monetary Fund reduces Mexico’s growth forecast for 2024 and 2025
The International Monetary Fund predicted a 1.4% expansion of its growth outlook for the Mexican economy by 2026, with 0.6% lower than its previous forecast.
Recent forecasts have been added World Economic Outlook of the International Monetary FundPublished on Tuesday. The reduction of its expectations for the Mexican economy this year is bigger than any other growth it has done. Also, the International Monetary Fund No other country that appears in its global economic outlook schedule does not predict the economic summary this year.
The International Monetary Fund has revised the 2025 and 2026 development predictions for Latin America and the Caribbean, which is largely due to distrust of the Mexican economy.
The regional economy is now predicted that this year will grow 2% – its January forecast is 0.5% lower – and 2.4% in 2026. The forecast of 2026 is 0.3 percent lower than in January.
“Amendments are often obliged to make significant standards for the development of Mexico, 1.7 per cent for 2025 and 0.6 per cent for 2026, which reflects more weakness than the late 2024 and early 2025, as well as the impacts of the Best, and the Earth -impaired, and the Earth -impaired, and the Earth -impaired, and the Earth -impaired, and the Earth -impaired. Earth, and Earth, and Earth, and Earth.
The United Nations Financial Institute said that “fees permanently reduce global trade and re -allocation in countries.”
“Canada, Mexico, China and especially the US are seen as a huge decline, the long -standing genuine commemoration of the US dollar in the latter country,” the International Monetary Fund said.
“Despite China’s biggest tariff increase, the decline in China’s exports is reduced by the decline in exports to other markets,” the company added.
#Way @Imfnews Significantly, significant standards and low growth forecasts are expected-> global growth (up to 2.8%), most EMDEs, fees, trading wars, uncertainty, and debt. pic.twitter.com/qvwz36rlgu
– Nicole Goldin, PhD (@nicolegoldin) April 22, 2025
“Fees are creating long -lasting losses. … Canada and Mexico, China and the United States are very affected,” the IMF said.
The US has imposed fees for imports from all its business partners, but isolates China for special treatment, with 145% of duties on most Chinese goods, as Trump increases his trade war in his first term.
Like other Mexican products that do not comply with the rules of the USMCA Free Trade Agreement, hundreds of products made with mexican steel and aluminum and those metals face 25% fees when entering the United States. US charges for vehicles manufactured in Mexico are in effectAlthough the US content is not taxed in those vehicles.
The Mexican government is currently trying to negotiate the best trade situation with the United States, where Mexico sends more than 80% of its exports. President Claudia Shinebam spoke to Trump About trading last week, but He said on Monday that there was no agreement to raise fees on Mexican goods.
The International Monetary Fund has reduced the US economy and 2025 growth perspectives for the entire world.
The US economy is expected to expand 1.8% this year and global production will increase by 2.8%. The view of the US economy was reduced by 0.9 percent, and the global launch growth forecast was reduced by 0.5 points.
“We are entering a new era as the global economic system that has been operating over the past 80 years is reset,” the IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Korinz told reporters on Tuesday.
The agency’s World Economic Outlook Report is entitled “An important opportunity amidst policy changes”, which mainly refers to Trump’s security age, he has raised US charges to the highest level in 100 years, According to the International Monetary Fund.
Shinbam: ‘We don’t agree with the International Monetary Fund’
At his press conference on his Tuesday morning.
“The president is not acknowledged, but we have (our own) economic models,” he said.
The current forecast of the Ministry of Finance for the Mexican Economy – Shinbam highlighted – It will increase 1.5-2.3% this year – The International Monetary Fund does not agree with the view.
The president stressed that the International Monetary Fund believes that the Mexican government is “nothing can be done to change the situation from the market.”
“We don’t agree with that sight. That’s why we created Mexico project.
“… we have a plan to strengthen the Mexican economy,” Shinbam said after she mentioned Provided a variety of activities and plans to strengthen the project Mexico Early this month.
The limit of general infrastructure programs – including High way The plans are, Water The plans are, Railway The plans are, Housing Projects, Port Plans and Airport Plans – The Project is part of Mexico. The federal government has said that public costs for those projects and other initiatives will help stimulate growth in Mexico.
“If there is no public investment, there may be a reduction in economic growth,” the International Monetary Fund forecasts, Shinbam said on Tuesday.
What is the current state of the Mexican economy?
The release of the recent World Economic Outlook Report of the International Monetary Fund released the initial data on the performance of the Mexican economy this year.
Preliminary data published by National Statistical Institute Inki on Tuesday Compared to the same month of last year, Mexico’s GDP shows that GDP fell 0.2% in March. Inki said the Mexican economy was stagnant in March and recorded a 0% growth in March compared to February.
The secondary or the manufacturing department recorded a 0% growth in March to 0.3% in March to February.
The third level or service department increased by 0.3% on an annual basis in March, but a monthly basis of 0.1% shrunk.
Inki did not release the initial data for the primary or agriculture sector.
Economic Analysis Director Capriyala Siller at the Mexican Bank Bango site, said in x The data indicates that the Mexican economy shrunk 0.04% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the last quarter of last year.
Annual percentage changes to ENEGI’s Global Economic Fleet (IGAE), which analyzes monthly growth in Mexico’s primary, secondary and third sectors between March 2024 and March 2025.
Mexican economy Contract on a continuous basis in the last quarter of 2024If the final data confirmed by the Q1 compression indicated by preliminary data, the GDP declined in two consecutive quarters.
Two quarters are widely regarded as a continuation of the growth of negative GDP Marking the recession.
If the Mexican economy is contracting in 2025 – just as the IMF forecasts – this will be the first year of negative growth since 2020 Gross Domestic Product fell 8.5% due to Govid infection And related controls.
The Mexican economy increased by 1.5% annually, which is a significant recession compared to A 3.2% expansion in 2023.
Mexico News Daily Chief Employee Writer Peter Davis ((Email protected))
