President Donald Trump and his advisers said this was always the plan: intimidating the whole world by announcing the astronomical tariff, and making countries feel the negotiating table – with the exception of China – the decline in the most intense commercial barriers while the United States sets new trade agreements around the world.
But the 90 -day break announced by Trump about the “mutual” tariff – which was never mutually mutual – gives his government only three months to complete very complicated trade agreements with dozens of countries that, according to the administration, will be interested in negotiation.
Financial markets do not buy this idea. The procedures ranged with great fluctuations. Other markets, such as oil, titles and dollars, send a clear message of deep doubts about Trump’s ability to develop this plan.
procedures
After another strong decrease last Thursday (10), the stock market seemed quieter for strong gains and recorded on Friday (11).
Dow Jones ended today with 619 points, or 1.56 %. S&P rose 500 1.81 % and NASDAQ with an increase of 2.06 %. The markets were driven by the statements of the Federal Reserve Chairman in Boston, Susan Collins, to the Times, saying that the central bank would intervene to support financial markets if signs of tension appear.
However, investors in the stock market have been operated in a very unstable scenario, and any Trump’s government declaration has the ability to make procedures soaked or decreased. For example, the procedures fell on Thursday after the Trump government explained the mathematics used to determine the average of 145 % on Chinese products. The market believes that the fare was 125 %. Dow fell, and more than 2000 points fell at a certain time.
During 129 years of the date of Dow Jones Industrial Averag, closed with differences of at least 1000 points up or only 31 times a decrease. Four of these times occurred last week.
S&P 500 decreased slightly more than 9 % in the first week of April, the largest weekly decrease since March 2020. This week, the index rose by 5.7 %, the largest weekly gain since 2023.
Despite the historical profit on Wednesday after Trump announced the violation, the procedures continue to be much lower than before the presentation of the “Liberation Day” tariff plan on April 2.
Titles
The address market is behaving strange.
Usually, securities are expected to rise in periods of turmoil. The titles of the US Treasury historically are the most secure assets, with the support of the US government’s belief and credit.
But the headlines do not rise – they are falling.
This is because investors have lost confidence in the American commercial policy and the fear that the Americans themselves can be more affected than the countries targeting the tariff policy in Trump. Jimmy Damon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said in his annual message to shareholders on Monday (7), Trump’s “First” policy at the risk of alienating the most important US partners and hurting the country’s private site around the world.
He entered the titles of the US Treasury-which moves in the opposite direction of prices-exceeding 4.5 % on Friday. Earlier this week, they were less than 4 %. This represents a huge movement of the market. The highest income can harm the American economy, as many consumer loans are linked to these prices.
City analysts said in a report on Friday: “The increase in prices was historically fast and does not provide any comfort for investors looking for shelters in troubled markets,” City analysts said in a report on Friday.
According to the total return rate in Bloomberg, the U.S. Treasury titles were on its way to the worst week since 2019, when the Federal Reserve from New York was forced to intervene and buy titles to contain a sudden increase in income caused by the lack of liquidity.
“Under the current market conditions, there is no need to interfere in the federal reserve at this time, but leaders are likely to monitor the market in general,” said Hegie, the director of the fixed income for consulting services in Truest.
Dienon said on Friday, at a remote conference for the results, he expected “steam” in the title market that would impose an intervention in the Federal Reserve.
“They will not do it now … only when they start panic,” said Damon.
oil
The oil market works as if we were entering the recession.
Prices have decreased in recent weeks, as investors fear that Trump’s commercial policy can weaken demand for travel and maritime and parties – all adult fuel consumers.
On Friday morning, US oil fell below $ 60 a barrel, near at least four years, before recovering part of the losses. Brent, a global reference, collected a barrel of $ 63 – the lowest value since April 2021 – before it was also recorded.
Oil rose on Friday after US Energy Minister Chris Wright, telling reporters that the country could boycott Iranian oil exports as part of Trump’s negotiations on the country’s nuclear program, according to Reuters. Close US oil by 2.4 % at $ 61.50. Brent rose 2.26 % at $ 64.76.
However, concerns about the impact of definitions on economic growth are still existing and how it can reduce the potential slowdown in oil demand.
Oil prices have been an important stagnation indicator in recent years. They fell strongly after exceeding $ 100 a barrel for the first time during the great recession in 2008. They got negative for the first time in the epidemic, when the excessive offer was so great that traders literally paid unwanted shares from their deposits.
dollar
On Friday, the dollar fell to its lowest level in three years. This is the opposite of what is usually expected when the definitions are imposed.
In general, the definitions of local currency are estimated because they encourage the consumption of national products instead of foreigners, making money more compared to other currencies.
But exchange operators sell dollars because they believe that the United States will suffer more than Trump’s trade war and weaken after the definitions.
On Friday, the dollar reached its lowest level against the euro since 2022. The dollar index-which measures the performance of the currency against a basket of other currencies that reach 0.9 % on Friday, after a decrease of 2 % on Thursday, the worst daily decrease since 2022. They are huge movements in the world negotiations from currencies.
“Investors and central banks sell the treasury and dollar titles due to the loss of confidence and credibility in American assets,” said Joe Prussuelaas, RSM chief economist. “Financial chaos has a price.”
Meanwhile, gold fired a snapshot and exceeded a record of $ 3,200 to tell Friday. The metal has increased by more than 23 % this year and recorded the best quarter since 1986. Gold is a safe haven in times of economic and political uncertainty.
Work agreements
Although financial markets show great doubts about the ability of Trump’s government to take advantage of the opportunity it has created to close bilateral agreements with 150 countries around the world, the administration is still optimistic.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessin said this week that more than 70 countries have requested meetings with US representatives to close their delivery agreements from the Trump punishment. Although the government has provided a few details about the countries that negotiate, it will give allies like South Korea and Japan.
But commercial agreements are incredibly complicated arrangements, and they are usually negotiated for years, not for months. Even if Trump is able to negotiate with all these countries in the short term – either with complete agreements or letters that create a structure – still China, the largest source in the world, the elephant in the room.
American definitions on Chinese products now reach at least 145 %, and China answered Friday at 125 %. This will lead to severe damage to the largest economy on the planet, and both sides said they were not ready to decline.
China is constantly claiming to be open to negotiations, but it wants to take respect. According to a source familiar with the talks, China ignored the US alerts not to increase its rates.
Meanwhile, economists remain indifferent to the sudden change of Tom de Tom. Although the negotiated trade agreements are undoubtedly good news of the economy, much damage has already occurred, according to Economists in Wall Street. And 10 % of a global tariff is still valid, as well as 25 % car rates, some Mexican goods and Canada, on steel and aluminum.
This is why JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs say that the chances of recession in the United States and the global economy this year are approximately 50 %.
Matt Ighan E. Kyle Atwood, Da CNNHe contributed to this report.
