Donald Trump’s specific fees set on specific countries and regions are less than twenty and less than hours They will be 20% to the EU. Half a century after the 70s oil crisis, the US ‘fee’ and its unpredictable nature of its policies have renewed the fear of a stigma.
This event occurs during high inflation with A With zero or low economic growth and an increase in unemployment. It is very difficult to deal with central banks and governments. Weakness prevents companies from investing or creating employment. At the same time, an increase in unemployment and any salary hike can be consumed in a situation where the prices of the shopping basket will rise strongly and to lose the purchase power of families. The low demand for homes and the fall of investment is still weakening the economy.
Before such an occasion, the central bank cannot be especially aggressive Types go down To trigger the economy as inflation is triggered. “But these inflation pressures cannot upload interest rates, because on the other hand, it has a profound recession in terms of economic activity or recession,” explains the economist and manager Pablo Gill.
Since the current situation occurred in the early 70s of the last century, the countries that produced the OPEC stopped exporting oil to the west, which made the economy depressed by setting prices. Inflation in the United States at the end of that decade came to 15%.
Trump’s entry … and ‘charge’
The announcement of last Wednesday’s fees “has done a lot of damage to the markets, but the increase in inflation, especially in the United States, and the increase in inflation, this newspaper Santiago Carbe, the director of Funkas Financial Studies and Professor of Economic Analysis of Valencia University.
In fact, JP Morgan Chase, the largest US bank, renewed his development prediction for the US economy a few days ago. In particular, he put on the table 0.3% contraction throughout the year due to mass rates -In his previous calculation, he thought about an increase of 1.3%of GDP. In the same row, Goldman Sachs researchers have raised the probability that the world’s first economy is 35% of the recession between 35% estimated up to 45% a week ago.
“It is true that if the fees are maintained, the situation is very concerned, but the fact that the market reaction is more dramatic than expected,” Carb says. In your view, Stanflower View Cannot be rejected The uncertainty already created with the advent of the Trump administration will weaken economic activities, but at the same time, it should not be taken as a matter of fact.
Antonio Sanapriya, International Studies Company’s economist and researcher agrees Economic information “Most possible” that can be a scene of technical recession and high inflation in the United States, Although prices do not rise like other chapters of the past. The situation will be paid by fees, which “breaks the mechanics of the best -living international trade”, with the uncertainty of uncertainty.
“I think you have to wait,” says Carbee. Wait to see how Washington represents the EU end Approve 10% tariff block for US imports and another 25% In response to a rates of 25% of steel and aluminum. Wait if other areas are creating similar ads and if the amount of business war is even greater. He further says that if it is only revenge, the economy will be affected and if you want to negotiate, it will help to calm things.
However, if that is the case in the United States, if you finally It probably stimulates an infection to other major economies. In conclusion, it would be important to see if the central banks put further action in the table, or whether they could eliminate the current state of the voltage in the market. “If they are extended for a long time, the fees can act as a major shock to the US economy, negatively affects growth and negatively affect inflation,” they say from the MFS investment management manager.
