When the President of the United States on April 2, Donald TrumpAdvertisement New and extreme charges.
Will end up fees without drowning inflation Stimulation Las European interest rates More Down. Are responsible for the European Central Bank (BC) They have already started adjusting their tone. At the beginning of the month, the ruling council unanimously reduced the easy interest rate of deposits at 25 basic points, Up to 2.25%.
Christin Lacard, president of the ECP, pointed out that the 50 -Boynd movement was also discussed. The notification of US charges seems Frankford’s posture tiltedPolitical leaders are now prioritizing the downward risks of growth.
“We see the fee impact on BMI statistics, procurement purposes and hiring purposes,” Lagard told the ‘The Washington Post’ last week, “The charges are more than inflation than inflation.” Lacard pointed out that it was ECB will review its growth opportunities At its next June meeting.
Low prices of raw materials, strong euro and weak
Oil prices have fallen more than 15% since the beginning of April, while the Dutch natural gas DDF’s European note has fallen by more than 22%. It Energy market cooling Reflects expectations to reduce global growth, especially if Duty Americans control business flow and reduce business confidence.
At the same time, Has been strengthened against the euro dollarThis restricts imported inflation. Another force that feeds the magnitude, especially in Europe, is expected Retrieval of world goods. According to Goldman Sachs’s economist, Geovani Pertomenico, US charges will create more than $ 300,000 million (280,000 million euros). With the fall of the US need, may be part of its SurplusParticularly ChinaFind your Way to Europe.
Previous chapters suggest it around it 15% of the excessive delivery It ends in the euro zone, which is equivalent to an increase of 1.5-2% on the offer of materials. “We estimate that this will reduce the quantity of the cost of basic goods, which resembles the basic IPCA’s -0.5% of the lowest.”
“China will have more skillHe would like to divert his export somewhere, perhaps to Europe. This will have a moderate effect on prices, ”said Lacard.
The ECB is expected to make more types of cuts
With the relaxation of inflation pressure, the markets are increasingly in the ECP. New type of types by the end of the year. Bank of America is now expecting a deposit type decline Up to 1.25% of DecemberCiting “low growth, even lower inflation, official interest rates continue to fall.”
Recently, the bank has reviewed its predictions GDP of the Euro Zone To him 0.8% to 2025 And 1.0% for 2026Fees, highlighting the uncertainty of strong euro and moderate world needs. It is expected GermanyIf its export -based economy and its given Vulnerability to do Automobile sector charges0.1% contracts in 2025. France and Italy are expected to grow only 0.4% and 0.7% respectively.
The fall of salary pressures adds to the inflation. Bill Divini, president of ABN Amro’s Macro Economic Studies, fell to 2.7% in the first quarter, which fell at 2.7%, which is very low from the infection. According to the Divine, “It means that forces without change Possibility The ECP cuts more categories Up to 1.5% of the month of September“.
Tivini recently said Euro earningHe Hardening of financial conditions And Download energy prices They strengthened arguments in favor of high relaxation. “Our hope that inflation will be below 2% of the ECP by the end of this year.”
Although the ECB responds to European conditions, Danger The United States is maintained on a recession horizon. Alexandre Stot, an economist of Goldman Sachs, said that in previous cycles, most European economies entered the recession in three quarters American summary. “We have already predicted small wrinkles for Germany, Italy and Switzerland in the third quarter of this year,” he said.
Although they are not still functioning The effects of business charges President Trump, Initial market response And policies suggest that inflation fears may have been exaggerated. Rather, the fall of raw material prices, weakening of demand and restoration of global distribution creates a constant environment that can force BC a Accelerate your relaxation cycle In the coming months.
