The Ministry of Finance divided the expectations for the growth of the economy for this year, from 2.3 % to 2.4 %. For 2026, expectation is 2.6 % growth.
These numbers in the Pharynx Bulletin, estimated by the Economic Policy Secretariat (SPE), which was issued on Monday (19).
According to publication, the review is related to the expectation of greater growth in the first quarter of this year and in agricultural production, which must have a new record of harvest in 2025.
“In Brazil, the expectation is that the gross domestic product will grow by 1.6 % in the first quarter. Although moderation in the growth of periodic sectors and low motives coming from the labor and credit market, the perspective is the acceleration of GDP growth in the margin, especially the strong growth of agricultural production expected to agricultural production.
However, Spe is betting on the slowdown of GDP (GDP) in the second half of this year. According to the text, due to the decrease in a decrease designed for the gross domestic product of services, leaving 2.4 % in the first quarter of 2025, an increase of 3.4 % in the previous quarter.
Minister Fernando Haddad says that the country “has all the conditions that grow 3 %” by the end of 2026.
“We can complete the fourth anniversary of the president’s mandate without the average growth rate by 3 % … and I think this year, even with high interest rates, we will grow about 2.5 %,” Haddad said in an interview with Uol last week.
The country grew by 3.2 % in 2023 and 3.4 % in 2024, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), which reveals official data.
In the Focus Bulletin of the Central Bank, which was released on Monday morning, the market analysts heard by the municipality of Al -Rahan on 2.02 % growth. For 2026, projection is a modest increase of 1.70 %.
For 2025 inflation, the government’s estimate was also reviewed from 4.9 % in the last post to 5 % now in May.
According to SPE, the change reversed “small surprises” in the March Consumer Prices Index (IPCA), as well as “border changes” in expectations for the coming months.
The text says: “In the scenario that has been seen, the low inflation will be observed regularly more than September,” the text says.
For the year 2026, the dropping of inflation remained “relatively fixed” from 3.5 % to 3.6 %, within the targeted time of 3 % inflation.
For 2027 onwards, IPCA is expected to approach the goal center.
Analysts heard by BC, which reduces the expectation of inflation for this year, from 5.51 % to 5.50 %.
For the year 2026, the expectation of inflation is 4.50 %. By 2027, expectation remained at 4 %. By 2028, the projection remained stable at 3.80 %.
