On Wednesday (7), there are meetings for the central banks of the United States and Brazil. The meetings will determine the interest rates of each country and will be announced in Superquarta.
Meetings take place from perspective Universal uncertaintyEspecially with effects Customs tariff war Intensive by US President Donald Trump in early April.
In Brazil, projection is that Copom Policy Committee (COPOM) Do Panco Central (BC) Lift the current 14.25 % a year, but to a lower extent than we have seen in recent meetings. The decision should leave after 6:30 pm.
Indeed in the United States, the estimate is that Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Federal Reserve (Fed) Maintain the current level from 4.25 % to 4.5 %. Data will be published in 15 hours (Brazilia time) and meet with the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome PowellIt will happen at 15:30.
The market is witnessing a height of 0.5 points in SELIC
In a report, Goldman Sachs displays 0.5 percentage of SIIC. The American bank will be aware of the basic interest rate expectations for the end of 2025 and 2026, due to the 3 % Brazilian inflation, the center of the target.
Goldman states that inflation, along with uncertainty in the external macroeconomic economy, can leave the “door open” for future movements.
The bank wrote in a report: “We hope that COPOM will not close the door to a less remaining increase in June, but to refrain from providing specific guidelines for the June meeting (including not noting that the increases that have ended).”
Most of the market is betting on an increase of 0.5 points, raising interest rates to 14.75 % annually, and shows data from B3. If this is confirmed, SELIC will reach the highest level since 2006.
The market expectations that were captured by the Focus Bulletin, which was published on Monday, enhances 0.5 points This week and a new increase of 0.25 at the meeting to be held in June, and throwing interest to 15 %.
However, before the end of the year, the BC should start to cut, reduce 0.25 points and close 2025 with SELIC by 14.75 %.
For the next year, expectation is the benefit of 12.5 %.
Jeff Bathalf, a financial investment specialist, says that the Brazilian Central Bank tends to adopt a more important technical position to support the financial market expectations and enhance its institutional independence.
“Given this context, a new rise – despite moderate – will work as a sign of monitoring and commitment to price stability, even in the face of influencing economic activity,” he says.
With the same lines of “waiting for vision”, the CFP Financial Planner keeps BC at the interest rate of 14.75 % annually at the June meeting to analyze the effects of interest raising, however, it is possible.
“If inflation continues in a negative surprise, as happened in the core of service and food, and the exchange rate increases its value, which increases the value of prices and inflation expectations for the year 2026 to stay in a state of the kitchen, and this would effectively harm the current rate.”
The most prominent federal reserves are uncertainty
In the international scenario, the war of tariffs, Donald Trump, began not to bring answers to how the Brazilian economy was affected in the medium term, as well as moving the expectations of the performance of American activities.
Trump’s guidelines for the economic policy of the Federal Reserve as one of the challenges in the work of the monetary authority to follow up on their goals of generating job opportunities and controlling inflation.
In early May, the US President excluded the idea of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, but he pressed again for an immediate interest in Hajjah Hajjah A decrease of 0.3 % in the country’s gross domestic product compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 with the first quarter of 2025.
In a report, the LCA4INTLILIGE consulting company states that the US gross domestic product was shrinking was due to the response of the industrial and local consumers, which is more anxious to the Trump’s introductory war.
“Good behavior of inflation in this second quarter will be challenged through the shock of the tariff: companies have reported a related increase in costs, and families are also aware of an increase in the cost of living,” said LCA4INTLIGE.
According to consultations, the Federal Reserve must maintain the basic interest rate at Wednesday (6) meeting, not indicating a decrease in the June meeting and maintaining its independence from Donald Trump’s attacks.
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