The trio managed the researchers to “predict” that Robert Privost would be elected the new Pope in the scope that was held earlier this month. The group created a statistical model that took into account several points and evaluated the Cardinals that are likely to become noon.
GiusePPE SODA, Alessandro iorio and Leonardo Rizzo Applications within the Cardinal College.
“The starting point is simple. Even in the church, as in any human organization, import relationships. The more the individual is the most connected, the ear and central in the flow of information, the more likely it is to unify a unified personality,” explains GiusepePE SODA, the organization’s teacher at the University of Bukoni.
At the end of the study, they created three categories and sought the “direction” of the Cardinals. In one of the menus, Prevost was the bestWhile in another, a Brazilian transmitted:
The highest 5 executor cases:
- Robert Brevost (moderate, USA)
- Lazzaro You Heung-Sik (Moderate Liberal, South Korea)
- Arthur Roche (moderate liberalism, UK)
- Jean-Marc Hazlnut (Moderate Liberal, France)
- Claudio Gogoitic (Moderate Liberal, Italy)
The highest 5 in information control
- Anders Arborelius (Moderate Conservative, Sweden)
- Petro Parolin (liberal, Italy)
- VíCtor Fernández (liberal, Argentina)
- Gérald Lacroix (Moderate, Canada)
- Joseph Tubin (liberal, USA)
The 5 highest in the ability to build the coalition
- Luis Antonio Tajil (moderate liberal, Philippines)
- Angel Fernández Artime (Moderate Liberal, Spain)
- Gérald Lacroix (Moderate, Canada)
- Fridolin Besungu (Moderate, Congo)
- Sergio da Rocha (mild liberal, Brazil)
In any case, the researchers confirmed that they did not intend Predicting the result of the flavor itself“Oracle”, but create a tool for “Read the context”.
Explanation of the form
The researchers built the model using three main sources:
- Official associations (Decker, commissions, advice and Romanian academies of Korea): This data reveals those who work with institutional contexts
- Episcopalization lines: All Cardinal was requested by others, and that “spiritual genealogy” adopt strong ties of loyalty and confession
- Unofficial relationships: Maps include through reliable press sources, which include ideological connections, guidance and participation in customer networks.
However, they produced the “regular map” of the Cardinal College.
According to the University of Bukoni, the innovation of the study relates to the definition of three criteria that determine the “emergency” of the Cardinal in the church network. they:
- condition
- Information control
- The ability to build the coalition
The first point is measured by what he called “self -centers”, and the bonus of the cracker that is not linked not only to many colleagues but also to the most influential.
The second is estimated by “centralization of mediation”, and the identification of those who work as contact points between different groups.
The third point is calculated using a compound index Assembly (Which reflects the part of a coherent group that relies on confidence and is able to provide strong support – Direct effect – Through the Cardinal Central, which measures the number of direct contacts that he has (the greater the degree, the more influence and popularity) – Strategy (That is, to what extent can Cardinal work as a social bridge thanks to its location in the conversation or communications center between other members of the network, which improves its ability to build alliances between groups).
Finally, the researchers note that they have added an important element to the form: The era of Cardinal.
They explained that the model has a statistical correction based on middle -aged age for the elected Popes since 1800.