NARCO scenarios: fighting or die

Drug trafficking in Mexico passes three scenarios: replacement of generations; The risk of death on an electric chair in the United States or low lead in the country; Security analyst David Sosoto said that the unification of the Cartlatat in Senalua, Galisco Noya Genreresion and the Noya Michuanana family are the main criminal forces all over the world.

In the context of the famous fighting criminal groups by the government of President Claudia Shinbom; The bowel war in Sinoa Cartel and the appointment of the United States government to Mexican cartoons as terrorist groups, Sociedo notes the methods of drug trafficking and its presidents in front of them.

In an interview, the analyst dismantled the differences that occur in the replacement of generations between criminal groups with the largest fire and the transportation of drugs in Mexico and in other latitudes.

They are many phenomena that cross. There is a deportation in the toast of drug trafficking, not just generations, for leaders towards the children of a nightmare, but also a regional change.

The northern Kartits that were controlling, such as the Gulf, which had the borders of Texas; One of Sinaloa, which had border points with the United States, and the ghettas now has a new axis, a card that depends on the center of the west of the country, in Galissco, then it is to change generations in terms of personalities and the extent of the caliphate from several presidents towards their children: Maybada towards them towards Mayito And Guzmán Chapo towards Chapitos. “

Saucedo said that this generation MenchoPotting and delivering his brother, Ibrahim Oceguerra Servantes, also known as Don Rhodo, the back line was broken.

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If he dies tomorrow, he is arrested or handed over to the authorities, then there will be a civil war within his group by regional leaders in Galissco Cartel. Something different with the new Michoacan family: The Hurtado Olascoaga Broths, what they did is to generate a vacuum, no one can replace them; They themselves kill those who consider that they can be deported inside the new Mishwakan family.

For me, they are the three most important groups of McCokotrotin groups, but in parallel with these genetic conditions, deportation or replacement, depending on the method, there is also an important change in the United States government that holds a safer and fighting position of drugs, which contain three components: the increase in the seizure of armed armed seizures. “

Among these three components, which weigh between Mexican drug trafficking is the possibility of arresting and that the prison sentence is a dead penalty. Drug trafficists who can face the death penalty in the United States are Rafael Carro Quinto, Jose Rodolfo Villarreal Hernandez, Vicente Carillo Venets, Andres Clark, Luis Geraldo Mendes Stephen, and Elizo Martin Sotilo.

From 29, if I do not remember, six awaits this definition. If some armed drug dealers are executed, this will generate a vortex of violence in Mexico, similar to those in Colombia in the 1990s.

Drug traffickers will have two options: to die in the United States or die in fighting in Mexico, I am dealing with they will be the second. No one would like to be in detention in the United States prison in the face of the possibility of death.

They will also not want to be in Mexican prisons, because the agreement on the existence of the Mexican government that could be committed, manufactured and retreat, but cleansing their provisions in Mexican prisons, was the agreement with them with them, and their secrets were safe in Mexico.

But once this agreement is broken, there is no incentive, it has no attraction in a Mexican prison that can be a biological palace, but given the perspective of delivery to the United States and its execution in the electric chair, it is illogical to do so, but the shooting will be on the last bullet in Mexico to avoid being seized. This is another factor that weighs context. “

David Sociedo explained that in the case of Sino Cartel since its origins have always had a collective leadership, My Zambada, El Chapo Joseman, Nacho Coronel, at that time. “They were like a committee in which the decisions were taken. Shabu Joseman was a leadership of the other, without Chapo there is a detachment: the conflict between Shepo and Dammaso López, then between Chapitos and he Mini Lic and then between Chapitos and May; Now the chapitos and Mayitos for betrayal. Without El Chapo, a series of very specific intestine began in Cenalo Cartel.

While Jalisco Cartel has always had a hierarchical leadership, its main leader has always been Mencho. Without Mencho, before the rumors of his death, there was a separation, such as the cow, in Kulima, two different models. Likewise, Jalisco Cartel is more in Medellín Cartel, and Sinaloa Cartel, like Cali Cartel. We have two different models. “

In the context of the way the drug gangs have fought from the government structure in the past six months, SAUGEO has been consulted about the potential appearance of new criminal groups, given the ultimate space loss. This said:

At the present time no. Sinaloa Cartel is a confederation of groups and families, and now these groups and families have been aligned in favor of Chapitos, in favor of El Mayo, and other neutrals, almost half of them alongside a faction.

Jalisco Cartel is instead of wearing any of the factions to be able to make the alliance with Chapitos or to destroy the other faction, which is weaker; He is waiting, and is managed in light of the erosion of the two factions to take advantage of the situation.

The Mishwakan family was forced to move and retract the progress of Jalisco Nueva GeneraCión Cartel in what its lands were, from Michoacán who moved to Morellos, Mexico City, Guerrero, Oaxaca and expanding in the southeast, by the South Pacific, where there was a marginal presence of large groups of drug experimental.

At the present time, I see this phenomenon otherwise: unifying large groups; I do not rule out the emergence of new groups, because, if tomorrow, Minsho is captured, it is certain that Narcoimperium will be divided into two or three gangs, because the caliphate line has been broken and the El Mencho brothers lacks legitimacy, and his wife, for the sake of ascending.

To appear new groups, the emerging groups may have been Cartel Tláhuac, the Unión Unión, but they fought by Claudia Xinbum and the order of Garcia Harvoush, partly because they were the most violent groups, then I do not see a refreshing power, and if there is through it, then through its exfoliation, it will be one of the Macror.

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