Ito has reviewed her view of Brazilian monetary policy SELIC maintenance at the current level from 14.75 % to the end of 2025Reducing its previous perspective that the basic interest rate will end the year by 15.25 %.
In a report issued on Friday (16), Ito stated that in recent communication, it appears that the central bank has gained confidence that monetary policy is a large educational level and that the activity is slowing down.
The report signed by the chief economist, Mario Meskita, said: “I add to that the clear option for the maintenance strategy for a long time,” said Mario Meskita.
He added: “Evaluating the authorities on the potential effects of change in the external environment (by adopting a perspective that the balance of the risk about the central scenario is identical), in our opinion, a relatively high tape for a new SEIC modification in June.”
S. ITAú also said that he does not see a space for discounts in interest this year, given the annoying expectations and activity that is still flexible.Predictions of discounts only in 2026 that would lead to SELIC to 12.75 % at the end of next year, compared to the previous projection of 13.25 %.
On Inflation, IPCA 5.5 % drainage forecasts were preserved in 2025 and 4.4 % in 2026Quoting the balance of similar risks this year.
“The potential decrease in the trade flow between China and the United States and the prices of low metal commodities can be translated into more benign industrial enlargement, but the decrease in rain increases the possibility of tariff flags at the end of the year,” he said.
It also maintains the drop in GDP (GDP) of 2.225 by 2.226 by 1.5 %
Eto’o said: “The slowdown in the activity should be more clear in the second half of the year, after a good performance at the beginning of the year by the agricultural sector and the continuous consumption of high income,” said Eto’o.