The world markets are still turbulent After the brutal sales promoted by last week’s fees. China’s retaliations They thought that after the country, the world trade war was increased 34% fees on all imports were charged Came from the United States last Friday. Investors fear that the increase in business obstacles will push towards the global economy Recession.
Stock actors are watching this week Evolution of tax fees US President Donald Trump and The answers of other major economies. The increase in uncertainty promotes high risk hate in world markets.
In this context, US inflation data operates as an important indicator Provide information on the Federal Reserve Political Stability on the country’s economic path. The German Industrial Manufacturing Report, Interest Rates on the Reserve of New Zealand and other major regional events such as China’s inflation data will attract investors’ attention.
The EU is ready for a “proportional” response
The 27 -component volume is prepared in response to Trump’s fees, Joins Canada and China In the announcement of the new retaliation measures. The White House is expected to announce taxes for importing Copper, pharmaceutical products, semiconductors and wood.
At the economic level, Germany will release data of its industrial production February. In January, production increased by 2% after 1.5% declined in December, thanks for the recovery of car and food sectors. However, the production of production was shrunk and the energy sector was also weakened. According to the Federal German Statistical OfficeIndustrial production was stagnant between 1.6% of the year and November 2024 and January 2025. The consensus suggests Production may have reduced the medieval 0.9% In February.
As for the markets, Euro shot after mutual fees have been announced Trump, and the Euro/Dollar pair have reached the highest level since October 2024. However, the European stock markets collapsed, both Euro Stocks 600 and Docs About 7% of the last week fell. These trends will last in the midst of the current uncertainty.
United States, Federal Reserve Policy is pending
US inflation data in March will be the focus of this week’s attention. In February, the annual consumption price code (CPI) rose 2.8%, while the basis for inflation – it excludes turbulent components such as food and energy – 3.1%. Both figures were lower than expected Above the Federal Reserve 2% above. Intelligence predictions may have fallen to 2.6% in March, while the base CBI may be reduced to 3%.
However, the increase in the world trade war may make an exercise Pressure on top of inflation while reducing growthThis will complicate the decision of the central bank. Its leader, Jerome PowellIt was announced that the central bank did not need to rush to any policy change and that the Trump administration was waiting for more clarity on the economic impact of the Trump. The minutes of the Federal Open Market Group Meeting (FOMC), which will be released this week, will be investigated in search of the signs of the central bank’s political perspectives.
In addition, investors will take care of the preliminary consumer confidence code of the US Production Price Code (IPP) and Michigan University. The February IPP statistics have been revamped with CBI data, indicating the loosening of inflation pressures. However, the consumer feeling fell in the third consecutive month in March, 57 –The lowest level since November 2022– Amidst the growing concern for the economic situation. Two -thirds of the consumer They expect to increase unemployment in a year, which is the highest rate since 2009. Inflation expectations increased to 5%a year, which is the highest level since November 2022.
Will provide some clues to investors for the Asian-Pacific future
China will release its March inflation dataThe basis for measuring the need for consumers in the country. Consumption prices 0.7% year -in -year, The first decrease in January 2024Due to seasonal factors. Inflation is expected to grow normally in March, with a planned year increase of 0.1%. In response to the growing business tensions with the United States, The Chinese government is likely to use new stimulating measures The domestic demand has been destined to increase. In the meantime, the weak reading of the expected may further press the feeling of the global markets, especially in consumption values.
New Zealand Reserve Bank . When the country entered the technological recession in October last year, RPNZ has used three cuts of 50 basic points. The central bank is expected to maintain a moderate position in the light of the global market disruption caused by the business policies of the Trump administration.