IEA predicts brakes in the demand for a crisis

International Energy Company (AIE) Its universal oil demand has drastically reduced predictions This year, in the midst of the emerging business war, by 2026, it has predicted the surplus of continuous distribution in its first comprehensive assessment. The Consulting Institute of the main economies reduced its demand for 2025 300,000 barrels per day – almost a third of the barrels of 730,000 barrels per dayAccording to your monthly report released on Tuesday. This cut half is concentrated in the US and China, which is immersed in a major trade war.

Consumption development will be more slow in 2026, Paris -based company explained that just 690,000 barrels of barrels a day, “a weak economic environment” and the popularity of electric vehicles. IEA researchers wrote that “the collapse of the perspectives of the global economy in the beginning of April in early April led to a downward review of our forecasts.”

Oil prices occur after at least four years of decreasing, Last week in London a barrel of $ 60 belowUS President Donald Trump has announced a series of punishment fees. Since then, Brent’s future has recovered, citing about $ 65 on Tuesday.

Trump’s action, with that Amazing results of the OPEC+ alliance countries It has prompted a series of reviews in oil prices by Wall Street Giants Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan to accelerate the increase in production next month. When the market decline affects American manufacturers, the IEA reduced its new concession estimates from countries outside this year, up to 200,000 barrels a day, up to 1.3 million barrels per day.

However, these new oil contributions will be sufficient to meet the weak demand this year and the next. In 2026, production outside OPEC will increase the “strong” 920,000 barrels per dayWith the development of the United States, Brazil, Canada and Guyana more dominant. According to the agency data, the global surplus will reach 1.7 million barrels a day in the first quarter of next year.

Despite the common distrust, this report showed some signs of continuous strength in the oil market. The development of need in the first quarter is strong after 2023, and the world oil reserves are “close to the minimum of the five -year range.” Nevertheless, the common perspectives are fascists. Even the OPEC Secretariat – in general, is more confident than other agencies – in its latest monthly report released on Monday, recognizing the degradation of the situation by reducing its oil demand predictions. Nevertheless, Its ratings are significantly higher Than the ideas of IAE and Wall Street.

Saudi Arabia, the chairman of the Opeck, has been surprised to promote the market decline, with the intention of pressing the group to accomplish their production installments by leading the group to three times the increase in the planned production for May. It may be a short -term strategy. In terms of IEA, the recent average growth of about 1 million barrels per day applies to a wide view that oil consumption is growing during this decade, as the replacement of fossil fuels towards renewable energies improves.