In 2025, IBovespa and the exchange rate had the best quarter since the same period from 2022.
While the Brazilian grant increased by 8.51 % in the first three months of the year, the dollar achieved 7.65 %.
Andrei Fernandez, chief economist in economic analysis, says: “The main explanation for both the behavior of the stock exchange and the exchange market comes from that episode of December 2024, as it ultimately culminated in political and economic uncertainty in a very sharp process of the low value of the Brazilian currency and the loss of home estimate.”
After the tensions created in the market by Announcement of the IR tax exemption for those who receive up to $ 5,000 in parallel with the financial amendment package – What was seen as a mistake timing From the government -Fernandez asks for a correction.
After all, the movement of these three months is the opposite of the full market behavior at the end of last year.
The main index of the Brazilian donor closed 2024 at 120,283.4 points, 10.08 % decrease throughout the year. In the past three months of 2024 alone, the depression has been 8.75 %.
Part of this current discharge is completely possible to the lowest year.
“The powerful consumption of household assets last year has created a base for the current recovery. Even with Seleic in two exclusives since 2022, many assets in the stock market have attractive prices.”
“In addition, the price index (P/L) was in historically low levels, which has maintained the amendment movement in recent months.”
Trota notes that the flow of foreign capital was one of the main engines of the bag recovery.
On the one hand, external resources reached Brazil, which is attracted by the highest income provided by the high SEIC – 14.25 % per year – and is still with a high direction.
On the other hand, exactly the cheapest assets in Brazil.
“We are still watching Brazil as a scenario in it evaluation Matheus Amaral, an expert in a variable income, says he is very cheap to ignore him.
B3 data proves this scenario: Between January and March this year, the Brazilian stock market recorded the entry of $ 12 billion, until last Friday (28), the latest data provided by the grant.
In the same period last year, the result was the opposite, with nearly 23 billion dollars left.
In addition, the uncertainty surrounding the commercial policy of US President Donald Trump and its potential impact on the Federal Reserve interest rates has chased the American market investor.
“Fears focus on uncertainty about implementing customs tariff policies by the Trump administration and subsequent negotiations,” says Bruno Shahini, an investment expert in the Bedouin.
Amar highlights, from Inter, that he is one of the emerging countries affected by Trump’s definitions. One of the least affected.
The point also raised by Breno Flassi, Investment Manager and Rubik Capital partner, is one of the stimuli implemented by the Chinese government, which prefers the country partners’ sectors, as two exporters of Commodity Brazilians.
“This constructive environment of the Asian giant contributes to a more positive expectation of the performance of Brazilian exports,” says Valste.
These tensions must continue to direct the market for the coming months, while the investor will continue to search for opportunities here.
“A scenario for the coming months is still a challenge, as the market closely follows the path of global inflation, monetary policy decisions in the United States and the performance of the Chinese economy.
