Although the President of the United States, Donald TrumpI retracted from Global definitionsThe new system can directly affect the Brazilian pocket.
The Republican said on Wednesday (9) that it would limit the mutual tariff to 10 % for 90 days. At the same time, he announced that it would increase Import rates in China to 125 %Intensify the trade war with Beijing.
Publishing on its social network, social truth, the Republican stated that the measures enter into force immediately.
For analysts they heard before CNNBrazil can suffer from an uncertain climate that is still suspended in global markets.
On the other hand, this procedure opens an opportunity to make Brazilian products more competitive for other countries.
Impact on attention
The scenario of uncertainty tends to remove dollars from the origins of risk, such as scholarships from emerging countries, where investors search for safer ports.
Brazil recorded a net port of $ 8.297 billion in MarchAccording to the data you published Panco Central (BC) This Wednesday (9).
As a result, the negative balance of $ 6.6 billion in March 2020 is registered at the beginning Covid-1Even the worst during the month since the historical series began in 1982.
American border exit movement helps pressure Economic inflation – which is already located above the surface of the BC goal -, which directly affects the prices practiced in the country.
The scenario makes the BC mission difficult to achieve inflation to the goal, due to the maintenance of attention, already in 14.25 % per year – higher level since 2016 Compressed.
The international scenario was one of the reasons that the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) is as challenges in monetary policy.
In the last meeting, the group stressed: “The external environment is still difficult due to conjunctival and economic policy in the United States.”
Stagnation
For Way Investmentos Economist and ESPM Economic Coordinator, Alexandre Espírito Santo, Trump’s announced truce does not bring enough comfort.
“What happens is not good for anyone,” he says.
In the same direction, Juliana Invz says, economists and coordinators of Insper One, says that Brazil tends to be negatively affected by the doubts of global doubts.
The situation may get worse if the American economy goes to recession – The image that lost strength on Wednesday after Trump’s announcement.
The potential crisis in the world’s largest economy will have global effects, which reflects less economy in the world.
“If the recession stabilizes in the American economy, and if it is all over the world, we can also a decrease in the sale of Brazilian products to the rest of the world, which reflects a lesser world,” says economist.
In addition to suffering from breathing loss in global activities, Brazil will be particularly affected by the large weight of commodity exports in the trade balance.
In values, the most exported products in Brazil in 2024 were the total oils or mineral oils, with $ 44 billion, soybeans, $ 42 billion, iron and concentrated crude, 29 billion US dollars, according to the Ministry of Foreign Trade data at the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services.
“Brazil produces agricultural commodities, oil and raw iron, which loses the price if the world enters the recession. It hurts us,” says Espereto Santo.
Half -glass
On the other hand, the scenario can also bring opportunities for Brazil. The vision of “half salted glass” specifically depends on the commercial balance.
Since Brazil is a major source, removing countries from trade with the United States in revenge on definitions may end in families’ accounts.
“New markets can enhance Brazilian business links, and to enhance, in specific scenarios, economic growth,” says inhasz.
Agreements with everyone
Earlier, the US Treasury Secretary said that Trump’s decision to suspend prices would allow time to negotiate new business agreements.
“This agreement will be made with them,” Trump told reporters to reporters.
*With CNN International
