The immediate impact of the prices of the US President, Donald TrumpWorld Trade should be unloading global chains of value, experts who heard before CNN.
However, the scenario can show opportunities for Brazil.
In the context Globalization Where is one of the great Players From international trade, Brazil must feel the effects of republican commercial policy. The most obvious and more direct impact should be more direct in reducing the size of the export of Brazilian products to the United States.
Lucas Curie, innovation and internationalization consultant, notes the fall of the trade balance and the effects of the exchange rate.
“If exports decrease, the dollar’s flow decreases. Any entry is less, it appreciates itself (before reality),” Curie says.
“The exporters will have to search for other markets or accommodate prices in the form of a discount so that they do not affect their sales. In any case, there will be a decrease in exporters’ revenues, “will be backward.
In addition to the reorganization of the trade balance, Lendro consentino, the political scientist and international relations teacher in Insper, cite the possibility of climbing and flowing to other topics, such as organizational obstacles arising from additional fees.
The American president must This Wednesday (2) was announced (2) The mutual definitions of business partners in the country. In February, By noting that it will study the implementation of the mechanismTrump accused Brazil Imported imposition of ethanols that enter the country.
However, the Brazilians export and import a little ethanol in the relationship with the United States.
Therefore, these rates and other mutual rates that Trump can suggest to seek to harm his economy, have a limited impact on Brazil, says Professor of Economy at PUC-RJ, Sandra Rios.
She notes that Brazil should be one of the least affected countries, as it has a “relatively modest” trade with the United States, which represents 12 % of exports.
In March, the American President put in power 25 % tariffs on all steel and aluminum enter the country. MOODY Risk Classification Agency has used this example to estimate the low effect of American trade policy on the Brazilian balance.
“Steel products are less than 1 % of the total exports to Mexico and a little less than 5 % for Brazil. Despite their importance in steel, none of the countries is not a major aluminum supplier in the American market,” says the House of Representatives.
“Although customs tariffs are painful for local steel products – Mexico sends approximately 90 % of steel exports to the United States, while the United States is a destination less than 50 % of Brazilian steel exports – we do not expect significant effects throughout the economy.”
Consequently, Moody’s evaluation is that the influence on Brazil must come indirectly through how the Chinese economy is affected by American definitions, for example.
Consequently, the indication of the strengthening of these commercial links and other commercial links enjoyed by Brazil, to reduce any possible resonance to rely on the United States.
“In general, the customs tariff policy conflicts with what we have good practices recommended by scientific literature. Usually it has bad results in the long run. (…) Brazil can be compatible by taking advantage of the scenario to strengthen other partners, even others from Latin America itself,” says Jeelson Sambai, professor of economics at GETULIO VARGAS (FGV).
In a report, Moody’s also indicates this Emerging economies are under the uncertainty resulting from Donald Trump’s policy.
However, the risk classification agency considers that large markets do not tend to be affected.
The report says: “The same (emerging markets) (emerging markets) have the resources necessary to deal with the turmoil, but their smaller and open economies are more likely because they depend more on foreign trade and investment for growth.”
The opening issue was also highlighted by Bank of America when it is seen by Brazil, so that Market projects are limited to the impact of Trump prices in the country.
“Brazil has the least direct and indirect exposure to American definitions, which is the advantage of being a very closed economy,” Bofa says in a report.
Opportunities
Thus, experts heard CNN They point out that Brazil can get out and benefit from the situation if it adopts a strategic position.
“(Definitions) creates (opportunities) because it opens the capabilities of other countries to take over the segments of this market, and therefore there may be some development of sectors and focus with the local market or other business partners,” Consino explains, from Insper.
Among the alternatives referred to as a way for Brazil is that the country enhances the bond with its largest commercial partner, China.
Corporate consultant to the Asian country, tells Daniel Lao CNN That witnessed the search for partnerships between the two sides, where the trade war grows.
In the projects where you work, you see the interests of the new factories in the sectors:
- Building machines
- Cars
- Energy meters
- Investors;
- Mobile phones.
Likewise, it happens to other Latin American countries, and the search for alternatives to provide raw materials and others Commodity. “The new infrastructure investment projects continue,” says Lao.
“This new moment of relations between the United States of China has benefited from Latin America, especially Brazil,” he said.
The corporate consultant highlights three sectors where Brazil can benefit from closer to China, while the Asian giant must search for alternatives to American products:
- Agricultural sector: Lao notes that Brazil is an excellent alternative supply for most grains (especially soybeans), a product that already shouts on the weight of the United States, and can increase the increase market share;
- Livestock: Here, according to the consultant, the same logic. However, more limited, as part of the Brazilian meat that has different destinations in the Chinese market;
- New Chinese investments in Brazil: Lao says that with the most unconfirmed scenario in the creation of industries in Mexico, mainly aims at the American market, part of these investments already change the road. “I have received a significant increase in these three months of the year on the studies of Brazilian market and studies of investment implementation in Brazil,” he says.
The commercial opening reduces Trump’s effect on Brazil? Understand
