Donald Trump’s fees can affect the growth of the EU and the inflation can shoot in inflation, which causes an embarrassment to the ECB. While trade decreases and prices rise, some economists argue that the type of cuts are still relevant.
European Central Bank (ECP) He is preparing for a new phase of economic uncertainty while being president of the United States, Donald TrumpIf it is Lay wide -purpose fees. He April 2 The US is expected to reveal a new round “Mutual charges”It is an important element in the renewed stimulation of President Donald Trump to reduce the US trade deficit.
Assumptions that White House can impose fees, even though the right purpose and size are uncertain Up to 25% For European products. These charges will be added to car lines And the prices of exports related to parts and vehicles have increased by up to 50%.
The potential impact is significant. In 2024, the European Union exported the United States worth 382,000 million euros, according to the International Trade Center. Of these, 46.3 billion euros are compatible with vehicles including cars, motorcycles and accessories.
The US refers to about 10% of the total exports of the United States UeVolume Is especially exposed For the Atlantic business fractions. According to estimates quoted by the President of the ECP, the 25% fee imposed by the US could be reduced by 0.5% of the GDP of the Euro region by 0.5% Inflation In the first year, the European Union is assuming that the European Union will take similar revenge.
This is a common case of policy conflict: the conflict on the supply, high -priced imports and the demand for the need, confidence and income at the same time. A political leaders of Frankfurt Uncomfortable conflict: Do they need to support the currency policy that relaxes growth or protect them from inflation shock that can cause these charges?
Inflation perspectives provide traces of road map
Goldman Sachzel depends on economists like Sven Zar Stehn, the response behavior depends on Inflation expectations. “Our estimates suggest that US charges will have materially negative effects on development with the moderate (and temporary) effects of inflation,” he said in a recent note.
According to Stehan, supporting long -term inflation expectations will support the type of currency policy type cuts. The models of Goldman, under such assumptions, are the optimal ECB strategy “Repeat of inflation and low interest rates of inflation. The best interest rates In April, another 2% reduction in June.
The risk of stability of inflation
But this calculation changes dramatically if the initial eruption of inflation is feeding expectations. If companies and workers begin to expect a series of prices and adjust the salaries accordingly, the ECP may be forced Activate to prevent inflation coordinating.
“In this case, we assume that the optimal policy may claim a cash principle Further control“Stehn said.” In this situation, the ECP cannot worry about the growth of fees and the stability of inflation. “
However, he recommended that these side effects be “very strong”, that is, a large and general increase in long -term expectations and justify such a difficult change. For now, pay troubleshooting trends and inflation expectations They are still harmful enoughAccording to Goldman, As the ECB is considering a relaxation.
The EU’s response to fees may focus on US services
Bank of American economist Ruben Segura-Katuwella sees a similar path, although A More cautious rhythm. “It is not ridiculous to think that we can see 20% of EU imports is common, as EU officials think,” he said, referring to the latest publications in the press.
According to its estimates, such a move can accommodate about 0.25 percent of the GDP of the Euro region within a year, and significant losses if the EU retaliates. Safe-Sa Au La Seeing Revenge but warns it Climbing is beyond business.
If the “entry offer” of the United States is especially aggressive, The Risks An expansion beyond fees on goods, including the EU’s action Services America May be of great importance“He said. If you protect the most sensitive areas of the European economy, one action of this type would be strategically attractive to the political leaders of the EU.
Bank of America maintains more confidence that the first type of ECP comes up AprilSubsequently the reduction of the deposit type 1.5% in September, the risk of delay until December cannot be rejected. When you approach on April 2, the markets will closely monitor how the ECP goes in this complex environment Duty They increase economic economic challenges.
