injection Foreign capital, A temporary agreement between China and the United States and expected the end of high interest rates to explain At higher than 1.76 % of IBowsPa and a standard brand of 138,963 points on Tuesday (13)They say they hear from analysts CNN.
However, the continuity of this positive session may collide with tax issues, as well as changes in monetary policy expectations and the results of the trade war.
According to the variable income analyst Rico, Brona Cenie, Foreign investors They landed 6 billion dollars on the Brazilian Stock Exchange alone in May. The balance applied by “GRINGOS” in the national stock market in 2025 a total of $ 16 billion.
In reading SENE, Entry of the external flow This is the main factor for breaking the bag record.
“One of the elements is the rotation of the global portfolios, specifically due to the increase in cases of uncertainty in the United States, which has always been a major center for money. That is, the exit of part of the flow that was in the United States to emerging countries, and Brazil was one of these beneficiaries, helps to explain today’s record,” as he argues.
These are the details that the preferential roles of foreigners are from the retail, construction and banking services sector, as well as Vale and Petrobras.
Parallel, the variable income analyst in Rico resumes the idea that The price of the papers circulated on IBOVSPA It is cheap for foreign investors, with less complications than historical average.
Another important element for raising the Brazilian stock exchange is the interpretation of part of the market that ended the BC interest cycle, According to the minutes published on Tuesday morning.
Last week, the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) raised the average to 14.75 % per yearA higher level in nearly two decades.
“We see the end of the attention cycle. The market always expects movements,” says Sini.
Last Monday (12), The United States of America and China submitted an agreement to reduce the punitive tariff imposed in April 90 daysWith Washington reduced its rates by 145 % on Chinese products to 30 %, while Beijing decreased by 125 % on US imports to 10 %.
The decision also made a price in Brazil.
Vedha Investmentos, Rodrigo Melitro, estimates that the binary agreement brought a mitigation of the financial market and the withdrawal of possible fluctuations and insecurity for potential condensation Trade war.
“The tariff is harmful to everyone,” he says. “
During the coming months, Molitero also believes at the end of the high interest rate of interest, and if COPOM realizes that SELIC is declining in the second half, this may benefit the stock market.
“Investors believe that at some point, Seleic can start declining, which will be very useful. This has strengthened this positive performance of the scholarship in recent days. Let’s remember that in May only, its increase of 2.90 % and the year is 15 %,” he added.
On the other hand, Rico’s variable income analyst states that Brazilian tax issues are still attention and can be disrupted Eibofisby behavior.
“We have a warning recommendation for the investor and a lot of selectivity. It is worth having a balanced portfolio and tracking these movements, because when we look at the local scenario, we still see many challenges.”
