Even with the announcement of the truce of the United States and China in the tariff war on Monday (12), the Brazilian soy producers appreciate that national agriculture is still coming out of this environment, as long as the global market interacts with the discharge of export prizes paid to soybeans in Brazil.
However, the moment requires caution, because the scenario is complicated and requires a documentary reading to form prices and international demand.
The great producers who have heard the report indicate that the logic is clear: the definitions imposed on American soybeans reduce the competitiveness of the United States in world trade, especially in China.
However, buyers can redirect their imports to South America. Brazil, the largest source in the world, is gaining the protagonist – but the effects are not automatic.
This is because the Brazilian soy price consists of three factors: the quotation of goods on the Chicago Stock Exchange, the stock exchange and the export prize. When the tariff war overcomes the demand for American pills, the prices in Chicago tend to decline. But if there is a greater appetite at the same time for Brazilian soybean, the prizes can rise.
The feature appears when this award rises more than the Chicago. This only happens in hot demand and competition scenarios. This is not what you see today.
Data from the US Department of Agriculture shows that the market is witnessing a global surplus moment and will continue to reap more by the end of the year. Brazil was winning records, and Argentina returned to the market after climate losses in the previous round. With a high symptom, the prize evaluation space is narrowed.
With full stocks, the margin of the product is narrow – and the prize needs to climb a lot to balance the accounts.
According to the ESALQ/USP Center, companies in Brazil are slow, with sellers and buyers away from the consensus on prices.
According to the data, in April, Brazil exported 15.27 million tons of soybeans, by 4.2 % more than March and the same month of 2024. The third largest in the historical series of SECEX was only 2023 and April 2021. For China, sales decreased by 3 % a month.
Tree until August
The relief came on the market with the announcement that the United States and China would suspend part of the prices for 90 days until August. US prices will decrease on Chinese products from 145 % to 30 %, while the tariff of American -Chinese elements will decline from 125 % to 10 %.
The stopping creates a negotiation space, but the end of the deadline coincides with the harvest of soybeans in the United States – a decisive moment. American producers celebrated Indian, but they warn that the sector cannot stand on a much longer tariff and point to the producers of the big world, such as Brazil.
“The tariff that is still valid for us soybeans is far from the lack of importance. The products purchased from our competitors in Brazil and Argentina do not have this additional cost.
“This means that China will first resort to South America for its purchases and we will only buy soybeans when that is very necessary,” said Calip Rajland, President of the American Soy Soy Society in Kentucky.
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