The inflation of the Europe has reached the lowest level in four months (2.2%), but the rise in monthly prices and the continuous inflation of services is the ECPP before the April 17 meeting.
Eurore He was more cool than expected in March, which Maintains Las Consensus Market European Central Bank (ECP) I can continue to reduce interest rates this month. However, although the global number has been reduced to at least four months, many basic and external dynamics will complicate the end of the ECP at its April 17 meeting.
According to the initial assessment of the Eurostat Published on Tuesday, Prices Euro zonal consumption They rose to the lowest level from 2024 in March and 2.3% for consensus. Basic inflationIt excludes turbulent energy and food prices, declined by 2.4% from 2.6% in February, Slightly below the expected 2.5%.
Behind the title: Basic inflation and monthly elastic
More Not all signs point to green light For cash relaxation. Annual rhythm Inflation is at leastMonthly statistics revealed a different story. Public inflation has accelerated from February to 0.6%That is, the biggest medieval boom in almost a year.
Basic inflation It carried out a 0.8% shooting compared to the previous month, which is the highest level since March 2024. The presses on prices are high In the specified fields. The cost of food, alcohol and tobacco increased by 2.9% per year compared to 2.7% in February.
Inflation of services. Although this is the lowest person since June By 2022, the monthly increase of 0.4% shows that basic stresses are moderate.
Geographically, Inflation in cash was unequal. France recorded 0.9%of the lowest compliant annual inflation, and Estonia, Croatia and Slovakia were 4.3%. On a monthly basis, consumption prices have increased by 1.8% in Greece, 1.7% in Portugal and 1.6% in Italy. On the contrary, Belgium, Estonia and Luxembourg recorded the monthly decrease.
Markets are leaning to a cut, but are political leaders being prepared?
Till Tuesday, Currency markets They foretold the probability of 65% of the 25 basic points cut at the April 17 meeting. BBut there are more section signs Within the ruling council of the ECP.
Obviously, many officers are worn The chance of pauses in April Wait until the situation is clarified, especially in terms of economic consequences American business policy And an increase in European military spending.
Although the type reduction It is still in the table, some members of the 26 -member ruling group are suspended in April Excessive uncertainty around the business policy An increase in European spending in the United States and security. BC The deposit type is currently 2.5%, compared to a maximum of 4%.
But the bank has indicated that more relaxation It depends on the data, and some analysts claim that March statistics are sending contradictory messages.
Economists see the path of cuts but not without risks
Europe’s chief economist Sven Zarie Stehn said by Goldman Sachz Basic inflation is on the path to reach 2% target By the end of the year, the ECP “The monetary policy seems to be still restricted. The deposit is 2.5%,” he said. According to Stane, ECP President Christine LagardProvided a The economic impact of the most conservative fees Goldman Sachs Studies recommend.
“Euro zone is important Downward risks to US chargesAnd 25% of the growth of public fare can reach 1.4% of GDP. ” The downward trend of inflation.
“We are missing anything in the monthly data or labor market that challenges our opinion,” he said, organizing 1.5% of the tank varieties in September. “The risks of suspension have increased in April. The contact will be listed from here. “
ABN Amro’s Macro Economic Research LeaderAccording to Bill Divini, the March type cutting is often forecast, but April is less safe. “The governing group has indicated it The types are close to the neutral position. June seems to be very optimal for the next movement, if taxed and possible business disruptions. “
According to Dutch Bank, ECB needs more time to evaluate impact Inflation of the financial policy, business risks and services, which is maintained above the goal. “Our basic hypothesis is that the ECB maintains in April and resumes the cuts in June,” said Divini.
BC Oli Rehn, a member of the Communist Council, said on Tuesday “If the data is possible to verify the basic hypothesisThe correct reaction in the monetary policy should be reduced in April. “
In brief accounts, The results of the ECB of April 17 are not simple It depends not only on the path of inflation, but also the outdoor risks attached to the immediate payment advertising and their potential economic consequences.