On Wednesday (7), the Central Bank Policy Committee (COPOM) will lead the new level of the SEIC rate. Most analysts expect a 0.5 percentage percentage, which will take interest rates to 14.75 % annually, but will indicate a slowdown in the rate of increases in the rate that was applied by BC.
The number of monetary policy maintains a shrinkage level, with the aim of slowing the economic activity to contain the high price.
Despite the interest rate, the consumption of families follows high. The reality that maintains inflation is compressed, even as the cost of credit caused by monetary policy increases. One of the indicators that reveals this challenge is the rotation rate in official employment, calculated from the beloved data and the general registry of employees and unemployed.
The Ministry of Labor database shows that the total employment and semester in March – the latest available data – reached 9.2 % of the total official staff block. That is, about one of every ten workers, leaving the job or was appointed during this period.
Compared to January 2020, immediately before the epidemic, the rotation rate was 6.8 %.
“The more warmth of the economy, the higher the direction of change in work. In a short -term scenario, this makes the company higher than salaries and then transfer the cost to the consumer,” says Marcela Kawati, the chief economist in Lifeetime Investimentos.
Kawauuti notes that the impasse to the impasse is the increase in the productivity of work, allowing the establishment of a hot market and low enlargement. Without this, any salary acquires risks that are consumed at high prices.
For the largest economists, the demand that workers heats up opens a breach of the employee to demand tools to increase productivity from the company. Especially in investments in the formation of human capital, such as scholarships or specific training.
The economist says: “The increase in productivity will ensure that the feature lasts,” the economist says.