US dollar Their relationship with bond performance has given a lot to think about economists. Dollar indexIt measures the value of the green ticket compared to six coins, More than 8% of people have fallen since January. Last month it reached the lowest level in three years.
At the same time, the yield of American bonds has risen, which challenges a familiar economic guidance. In uncertainty, investors usually go to the mass American Treasury BondsThey consider a safe place to stop their money. As a result, binding performance usually falls When stock markets fall downY The dollar usually rises. For example, during the crisis of 2008 and 2020, the value of the green ticket increased.
In the context of unusual economic policies of US President Donald Trump, the markets are now very misconduct. The latest increase in bond yield, with a dollar fall, claims to be investors Fleeing from American propertyLosing confidence in treasure bonds.
For those who are well aware of the United Kingdom, last month it keeps traces of the crisis of securities prompted by the former prime minister Liz Dres my 2022. In combination with the efficiency of British Guild following a controversial economic set WhilasForced the government to retreat.
Increase in debt service costs
The high yield of securities indicates that the US government should pay more interests for a loan loan, which controls costs. The increase in credit service costs is particularly inappropriate because the US has already registered A higher budget deficit. In the fiscal year 2024, this number is equal to some $ 1.8 billionThe third largest federal deficit in American history is equal to 6.4% of GDP. May have contributed to the regeneration of the bond price of Trump’s end SUBFORMED “Mutual” charges called SO-90 days At the beginning of April.
Dollar fall This happens after the coin rose Around last year’s presidential elections. Many expect that the growth of the United States is solid and that when Trump won the election, he will continue to promote economic expansion. On the other hand, the predictions of A Inflation regeneration With Trump’s promise to impose fees- they also raised the dollar. The perspective of high interest rates and high profits promoted the need for currency by foreign investors.
Alarm signals for investors
“Markets are increasingly tense on the credibility of the US policy, and in the increasing number of premiums to keep investors American Treasury BondsAnd the downward pressure on the US dollar, ”said Ranjeev Man, Senior Portfolio Manager of Aliyansky.
In particular, the deer identified Trump’s pressure on the president Reserve Federal, Jerome PowellA reason for anxiety. “Although Powell’s Order did not end until May 2026, Trump does not have the constitutional authority to dismiss Paval before its mandate, but the risk of the central bank politicization in the coming years in the coming years Destroy the credibility of the monetary policy Trump renewed his criticism of Powell recently and commented on the latest rally: “Be more than him than him, and trust me. “
The cuts are added to the disruption factory
In addition Nourishing threatsIn the United States there are other indicators that are concerned about investors that indicate the decay of financial and political order. He Doc office costsSuddenly Cuts of foreign aid. They shake off the confidence of the marketsWith the perspective of the immediate recession.
In early April, the Congress also approved the budget resolution to reduce taxes, which US deficit will greatly increaseIn the next decade. Experts say that even though the demand for US activities and securities is diminished, the US is still not possible Credit duties.
Dollar domination
The dollar integrated its position World Balance Currency in 1944At the Bretton Woods Conference, an event led to The creation of the IMF and the World Bank. Instead of attaching world currencies with gold, representatives decided to connect them to the dollar. This means that the green ticket is now the dominant currency International transactions And the central banks around the world keep it huge. As the dollar’s booking level needs to be strengthened, this system benefits the United States because it reduces the cost of ownership and raises the cost of assets called in dollars.
“This allows America to maintain Business and Funds shortages Continuing without immediate pressure, it isolates the economy of the usual limits of the growing foreign exchange, ”he told Veso Ionido, a financial professor of finance at Bayas Business School in London. Dollar domination That means US sanctions against foreign countries They are particularly influential.
The stability of the green ticket affects prices
According to Professor Berund Kemba, the economy of Manster University, the status of the green ticket is also “beneficial for American makers”. “Capital imported Interest rates are less than United States and creates additional investments in the United States, which triggers Growth opportunities For a long time of the US economy. In addition, determining US dollars of many internationally marketed products saves security and currency exchange costs to US companies. “
Nevertheless, there are those who believe in the US manufacturing sector that the dollar’s strength is empty, which is the comment expressed by President Trump and Vice President JD Wans. When the green ticket is strongThis means that US products are relatively high for foreign customers and foreign products are cheap for buyers in the United States. This is a reason The best American trade deficit With other countries.
A new era?
It is difficult to see a competitor who can catch the place of green tickets when Trump is undermined World balance coin. Swiss Franko, Chinese Yuan or Japanese Yen have their attractive qualities, although they do not have the stability of deep capital markets and the dollar.
Advertisement“We already have more interest in investors for assets called Euros,” he said Waldis Dombrowskis, EU Economic CommissionerAt the recent International Monetary Fund meeting, the ‘New York Times’ quoted. “We see that our stability, prognosis and respect for legal rule are already a strong point.”
Euro won again Investment trust
From the 2009 debt crisis, euro has earned Investment trust. The ECB is now very active in supporting economies through bond procurement programs, and the EU’s desire to support the member states in difficulties. The latest event promoted investors is the promise Germany To release around 1 billion extra euros in public debt.
Increase the trigger Europe economyWhen shooting the need for securities, it is considered an active refuge. Despite this, the euro has to go a long way. The single capital market that allows money to easily cross the European boundaries is not a fact, and the need for regulatory synchronization. In addition, some of the owned organ states continue Blocking the volume of funds inhibit Overall.
Withdrawal of US leadership
“Abandoning the dollar is theoretically possible, but not very possible in the short term,” says Veso Ionido. “This is, the latest policy changes and Withdrawal of US leadership They are encouraging other countries to review their exhibition. Many people already divert to reduce the risk. If this is maintained, this trend may gradually destroy the dollar field. “
AdvertisementDollar’s rule does not seem to end soon, however a Investor withdrawal. The immediate goal of the green ticket depends on the results made in the coming months of President Trump, and if he turns upside down some of the And the policies that are unstable.
