A China’s revenge on the United States On Friday (4), with the imposition of mutual definitions by 34 %, it could have indirect effects on Brazil in international trade. Among the possibilities, the most likely scenario is that the Brazilian agricultural works will benefit, according to the experts who have been consulted. CNN.
If China is already adopting high and permanent import rates on American products, then Brazil turns out to be a natural way to buy some elements, especially agriculture, according to analysts.
“Brazilian conflicts with the United States are the global market for some products, which migration may prefer from part of the Chinese demand previously made by the Americans. In this scenario, we benefited in size, not the price,” explained by FGV Agro Felipe Sergate.
The economist indicated that the Brazilian export of beef and cotton can be expanded to China with an increased tariff for the Asian country to the government of Donald Trump.
The indirect effect of Brazil Chinese revenge and the climbing of trade war is not new on Brazil.
According to Roberto Dumas, Professor of Economics at INSB, Brazilian exports passed through the first corridor of the Republic to the White House.
“If we follow what happened during the first period of Trump, it is possible that the oil goods and benefits. At that time, China began to buy a little less than these American elements and a little more than Brazil, which increased our export volume.”
Gustavo Cruz, the chief strategy in RB Investmentos, also puts soy between AGRO products that may browse the wave of meeting the need for Chinese demand.
“China has a large herd that needs to be feed in grains, US soybeans and Brazilian soybeans. In a year of standard crops in Brazil, we can benefit from this shade,” he said.
Roberto Domas said he does not believe that the United States will allow the loss of many markets with mutual definitions, and countries cannot circumvent the measurements by using external sources of their sources.
“Trump was diligent not to commit the same mistake that occurred in his previous government by increasing the customs tariff only on Chinese products, as China in Vietnam, Cambodia and others produced. The definitions of all nearby supply chains have now increased so that there was no such triangular in the production of customs tariffs.”
At this stage, Serigati pointed out that Brazil is benefiting because it is already a commercial partner for China, but it does not yet have marketing channels with other Asian countries.
Negative effects
On the negative side, experts indicated that the local industry should be affected by the Trump tariff and developments from China’s revenge.
Sergate said: “With American industry products such as electric cars, for example, China goes to” aggression “to other emerging markets and tends to influence industrial production in these countries,” Sergate said.
Dumas also stressed 25 % taxes on imported cars, whose effect should also be.
He said: “As much as we are not a source of vehicles to the United States, auto parts will also go to additional Marias, and we export engines.”
Another negative factor weighing against the Brazilian economy is the exchange rate, in the viewpoint of analysts. US inflation expectations due to Trump prices should maintain interest rates at high levels for a longer period, making the dollar more attractive and reduces the real value.
The commercial opening reduces Trump’s effect on Brazil? Understand