The main indicators of Brazilian financial market They are walking to end the first quarter of this year with the best performance of the period since 2022, with the support of the highest input of foreign funds and perception that the Brazilian assets are very reduced prices.
Analysts hear CNN He was also martyred expectations Useful relief And expectations Rotation As enthusiastic investors ’factors at the beginning of the year.
S. Ibovespa Last week, it ended with a 9.6 % accumulated increase, and the return is more The losses that were added by 2024, when 10.3 % decreasedShow data from Elos Ayta Consulting.
In the opposite direction, the value of PTAX in dollars – the Central Bank (BC) calculated approximately 6.9 % between January and March, has decreased at $ 5.766 for sale.
The largest international flow
Money is referred to from international investors on the Brazilian Stock Exchange as one of the main points for improving indicators.
B3 data proves this scenario: Between January and March this year, the Brazilian stock market recorded the entry of $ 12 billion, until last Friday (28).
In the same period last year, the result was the opposite, with nearly 23 billion dollars left.
Beto Saadia, Director of Investments at Nomos, explains that this movement reflects the rotation of global funds, especially with the departure of capital from the United States amid the uncertainty resulting from the customs tariff policy Donald Trump.
the fear The recession in the largest economy in the world Muscles have gained in recent weeks, especially after the recent republican data on the effects of new customs tariff guidelines.
In addition to the United States scenario, investors seek opportunities in Emerging countriesEspecially in the midst of the financial motivation, as in Brazil and China.
“It combines a possible American stagnation, which increased the probability well, with all these stimuli, whether taxes or interest rates. This ends with making these money go to the young, for example, Brazil is a destination,” he explained.
Discovering procedures
The performance goes in the first months of 2025 in the opposite direction to the observation in 2024, especially at the end of the year, with the stock market ending to less than 120,000 points, while the dollar was negotiated on the historical maximum, Nearly $ 6.20 rupees.
Rodrigo Sim, economist and professor at the Faculty of Commerce at the Sao Paulo Commercial Association (Fac-SP), refers to this period of strong consumption of local assets as one of the recovery rules.
It emphasizes the attractiveness of the Brazilian grants, even in the midst of a more restricted monetary policy, with Celic Keep two numbers since February 2022.
“Despite all this time, we had high interest rates to this day in Brazil, there are many good prices in the stock market,” he says.
Souad refers to the same path, which enhances that the price of price is profitable (P/L) was at low levels historically, which supports the modification movement seen in recent months.
Attention and elections on the radar
Economists are
In the field of monetary policy, The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank (BC) has already indicated the slowdown in the next meeting in MayAfter three higher levels, Seleic reach the level of 14.25 % per year.
Although it still predicts the adjustments that will bring the basic rate to the peak and 15 % later this year, the market is already expecting the reversal of the height cycle from 2026, with interest declining to 12.5 %, according to data from the focus bulletin.
According to Simões, this relief image has what is justified by signs – even if it is small – from the cooling of inflation.
The 15th consumer price index (IPCA-15) slowed at 0.64 % in MarchBefore 1.23 % jump in February – the largest level for this month since 2016.
The market also sees that the index will lose its strength throughout this year, which ends with 5.65 % – although the BC goal ceiling still explodes – and will continue the path of falling in 2026.
“It makes investors not only look at fixed income assets, but also start looking at the changing assets of income, with more risks,” explains Fac-SP.
Souadia from Nomos says that the expectation of changes in the leadership of the country gives a basis for improving assets.
According to him, this movement was observed since the beginning of the year, like President Louise Insio Lula da Silva ads for not making sure that he will compete for his re -election in 2026 And that The race will not enter unless it is “100 % health”.
In addition to the uncertainty about the Petista position next year, Saadia also indicates Popular fall without research As a market mood transfer in recent months.
“This very low popularity makes the market a little better for after 2016 with this rotation of the government, and it is clear that people end up to expect a possible rise that can happen in the bag,” he explains.
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