S. Inter It indicates that the end of the current session of Great attention It is “on the horizon.” In a report published on Wednesday (23), the bank expects High at SELIC rate of 0.5 percentage points At the next meeting Central Bank of Policy Committee (BC)in May.
According to Inter, this will be the last height of the current session, with SELIC is 14.75 %.
S. Inter He is still wondering, taking into account The current “very high” interest level And a potential scenario for slow in the global economy, can COPOM can Keep SELIC by 14.25 % per year Indeed at the next meeting.
“Hey The cost of monetary policy Obviously Top in this courseRafael Vitoria, the chief economist in the report, wrote, with the lack of confidence level, following the various government’s criticisms of the central bank and suggestions for intervention.
In its last three decisions Monetaryand S. Copom hiking Celic At one point for each meeting.
However, the BC Focus Bulletin indicates that the average market expects Another rise in attention 0.25 points this year. The survey was made this week until April 17.
In the latest results for focus, the market comes Reducing your expectations for inflation This year, which, according to Inter, can support with Benefit maintenance in May.
A SGRIDE monetary policy He must act strongly in the second chapter and The new highlands that exceed the current level become opposite resultsWith the cost of debt in height, Expanding the risk of taxesHe referred to Inter.
S. Inter Stay your Inflation 5.4 % at the end of this year. The focus of last week indicated The average limit at 5.57 %.
Really to Economic activityThe bank is seen Slow1.5 % grow in 2025.
“The risk of low growth in 2025 includes a scenario The most important global slowdown“From China and the United States, which can affect Brazilian exports,” Vitoria said.
“Although it is not affected directly with The high definitions imposed on usA decrease in international prices Commodity He concluded that it could mean more cooling of extractive activities in Brazil, as well as the negative impact on federal revenues, which can press the deficit in 2025 ″.
The chief economist has also included a slowdown in credit, depending on high interest rates, as one of the factors that can slow economic activity.
budget
In the financial scenario, Inter repeat a negative perception of public accounts when looking at Budget Guidance Bill (PLDO) to 2026 indicated by the federal government.
“The government was sent to Congress to LDO to 2026, which explains It is impossible to comply with the current rules of Clapusa as of 2026Vitoria said.
He said, “The financial amendment that focused on increasing revenues failed in the absence of other locks in controlling expenditures, especially linking spending and indexing social programs to the minimum wage, which once again had adjustments over inflation in the past three years.”
Refer to the five signs that Brazil’s public accounts are at risk
