S. Copom Policy Committee (COPOM) Do Panco Central (BC) I stole in referring to the end of interest on Wednesday (7), and is sincerely affected by the global uncertainty and the endowment of inflation outside the goal in Brazil, according to the analysts that he heard. CNN.
The decision, which the market had already expected, was accompanied by a memorandum in which COPOM re -inflation up and down, although this time he realizes that the factors are balanced, with three to each side.
For the senior economists of the FISP Federation of the Sao Paulo Industries, Igor Rosha, the university chose to have a margin of maneuvering in the face of doubts related to local market dynamics, especially the international market.
“There are no signals in the statement about a potential flexibility of monetary policy, although the market consensus indicates a decrease in the rhythm of SELIC.”
International scenario issues, According to Banco Daycoval’s chief economist, make the BC menu a higher level of uncertainty. Indeed in local news, the slowdown is still clearer for inflation over the compatible target.
In this Wednesday’s statement, BC designed this inflation for 2026, the current related horizon of monetary policy, 3.6 %. The value is higher than the 3 % goal position, but is still in the maximum (4.5 %) and minimum (1.5 %) domain.
“At the end of the communication, when the central bank at the end, it does not indicate the future, what happened is that the central bank narrates the reasons that make it not indicate yet. ”
For the risks of high inflation, COPOM is highlighted to inhibit expectations for a longer period, and more flexibility of service enlargement from expected internal and external policies and communication.
For the risk of low inflation, mixing was ultimately cited to the economy in more clear than expected, the loss of global activities in a more clear way and reduce the price of goods.
“The balance of risk is no longer asymmetric, more balanced, but with thick tails, both low and high risks. It has a monitoring refuge-probably to enhance the high interest rate strategy. As for the signs, it leaves open,” says Solali Solmersic, chief economist.
The negative global scenario
As expected, the statement has a great weight for the international scene. In the observation, the university indicated that the external scenario is “harmful and not in particular”, especially with the American commercial policy in the midst of the tariff war.
“Commercial policy feeds uncertainty over the global economy, especially from the life of economic slowdown and the heterogeneous impact on inflationary scenario between countries, with related repercussions on monetary policy,” said Copom.
Alexander Malov, an economist at XP, highlights the traits that BC uses on the global evaluation and the effects of the global economy in the United States on local decisions.
“The statement realizes that the external scenario is not only proven, but it is not particularly confirmed, due to doubts about the direction of American trade policy, and its effects on global economic slowdown – whether on timing or intensity – and the potential inflationary effects of these standards. All will naturally have effects on global monetary policy.”
The rise came to 14.75 % in line with the market expectations, according to Ravayella Vitoria, the chief economist in Panco Inter. For her, the statement had changes in the past meeting, but it was completely consistent with the development of the scenario, noting that the greatest uncertainty required greater caution.
“The following steps were open. In the balance of risk, mentioning the inclinatory installation of risk to inflation, the committee now sees high risk on both sides. In fact, the external scenario contributes to a perspective for more contraction than previously expected, which could enhance the stopping in tightening criticism from June.”