The Russian war against Ukraine may enter a decisive moment.
US President Donald Trump, according to why CNN On Friday (25), he was surprised and frustrated with the difficulty of fulfilling his promise to end the war.
He said he wanted Ukraine to provide regions in exchange for peace, mainly the control of the Crimea – the peninsula that Russia invaded for the first time in 2014.
The Russians control approximately 20 % of Ukraine, which can be lost many of the current Americans.
The United States is studying Crimean recognition as part of Russia, Although its perpetrator was inconsistent with international law.
All Russian President Vladimir Putin needs to do, from Trump’s point of view, is to stop fighting.
This would leave Putin a reward for the invasion of Ukraine if he can formally maintain the number of regions. If Ukrainian President Folodimir Zellinsky does not give up, the United States has threatened to remove support to the country.
The Ukrainians spoke to the Americans and the Europeans in London, and they report their copy of a plan, as the ceasefire is preceded by any discussion about the appointment of lands.
Trump went and Zellinski went to the funeral Pope Francis, Rome, this week.
If there is progress in peace, if the full distance process explodes or if the stalemate will continue and the war will continue, this may be evident in the coming days.
Meanwhile, hostilities continue. A Russian general was killed in a bomb car near Moscow on Friday. Russian attacks are still targeting Ukrainian cities, though Trump notification of Putin On social networks: “Vladimir, stop!”
Will Ukraine abandon the Crimea?
Trump believes yes.
And he said to Time Magazine On April 22. “Zelinski understood this, and everyone realizes that this was with them for a long time,” Trump continued.
Russia invaded Crimea in 2014, but despite moral discontent and sanctions, it did not face other consequences such as those present at a later time, when it tried to invade the rest of Ukraine by 2022. A ceasefire proposal From Trump seems to start from the idea that Crimea will be controlled by Russia.
Zelensky publicly rejected the idea of appointing the region.
But it seems that the other important Ukrainians are open to the idea. The mayor of Kiev Vitaly Klitschko, a former BBC boxer, told the negotiations, but the abandonment of the crime may be necessary.
“This is not fair. But for peace, temporary peace, it may be a temporary solution,” said Klitschko.
Will the privilege in the Crimea lead to a peace plan?
David Ignatius, the column writer in the Washington Post, argues that if both sides are able to overcome the issue of Crimea, other details can be set, including whether European forces will support the safety of Ukraine and if the United States exists, and it may protect and operate a nuclear factory.
Nick Patton Walsh, Da CNNIt is not certain, to a large extent that it is unclear what Trump wants from Putin and if the Russian will give up something. He writes:
“The main problem is that Putin believes that time is in his interest and that Trump has been repeatedly mentioned that time passes. These two contradictory positions will not lead to a permanent agreement.
Kremlin may have been wisely hit that, for months, it can withdraw small concessions from the White House and build a geopolitical scenario slowly more suitable for it. Consider the first 90 days of Trump’s presidency and the extent that the world has already changed in favor of Moscow. “
What is the error in the United States acknowledges the Crimea as part of Russia?
Russia has violated international law by invading the Crimea, such as Ivana Kotosova, from CNN. Zelinski has so far rejected the idea of surrendering to the Crimea, noting that this would violate the constitution of Ukraine.
If the United States recognizes from the Crimea as Russian, they will break the American word again and again.
From the Kotosova report:
“The recognition of Sherma as part of Russia would put the Trump government in violation of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in which the United States pledged to respect the sovereignty and borders of Ukraine in exchange for Kiev’s resignation for its nuclear weapons.
In 2018, during the first Trump administration, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo issued a statement by reaffirming the United States’ refusal to recognize the Carmalin’s sovereignty demands about the Crimea. “
What does it mean if Putin can keep the Crimea?
Retired Colonel Cedric Leiton, military analyst at CNN Friday.
“In its essence, what he did is to create a position in which we return to the nineteenth century, where the power works on justice, and this is what he wants,” Leiton said.
Ukrainians feel that the Crimea was part of their country since the fall of the Soviet Union. In more than a decade since Russia has taken, Putin has worked on the Crimea.
There are also considerations about resources, because the Crimea and other disputed parts of Ukraine are rich in oil, natural gas and other resources. Finally, Crimea is on the banks of the Black Sea and provides important strategic advantages to Russia.
What if Zelinski and the United States did not give up, how did they threaten, withdrew?
“What” withdrawal means still the question that no one has a truly clear understanding, “said Andrea Kendall Taylor, the first researcher at a new American security center and a former national intelligence officer in Russia and Eurasia.
“Does this only mean that the United States will not participate in the diplomatic process to try to end the war? Or does the United States will completely return home, including the end of any remaining military assistance?” CNN.
Will Ukraine continue to fight without support for us?
Ukraine depends on American support, especially for air defense and intelligence. But he also built his own resources and refers to Europe.
“The Ukrainians will not stop fighting if the United States is packed and withdrawn,” said Kendall Taylor.
It is Ukrainian drones that cause most of the losses among Russian soldiers at this time. Ukrainians also produce long drones that can reach Russia, which means that Ukraine may prefer to win time “to persuade Putin that he cannot remain in this struggle indefinitely.”
Does Putin have any incentive to end the war?
“Not too much,” according to Cindal Taylor. “This is exactly the reason that we have seen a lot of elements on his part to make any progress towards war.”
“It is really in his interest to continue the winding, to try to prove that they (Russia) are cooperating so that they can maintain the relationship between the United States and Russian,” he said.
“The desired result (by Putin) is to maintain this relationship and obtain the United States to abandon Ukraine,” she added.
Will Europe fill the void left by the United States?
Michael Kimg, the former Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ukraine, who is now running the Keenan Institute at the Wilson Center, said it is unlikely that the US Congress will take more expenses to help Ukraine and that Europe, especially Germany, is filling to fill this void.
“This is deep,” he said about Germany’s change to set security priorities in his spending.
“In some way, Trump offers German foreign policy, and there is a need to advance as soon as possible in the direction of independence (the United States).
He added: “If Germany will spend a trillion dollars in defense over the next two years, many of which will go to Ukraine, or to serve as a guarantee to support Ukraine.”
But this change will take time.
He concluded that “it is not as if Germany could replace the United States in the short term, but it can balance the irregular and anti -structure of Trump’s presidency.”