Senior economists and their partner Felipe Salto while participating in the program WwAnalyzing the Brazilian public budget status and indicated that the federal government will have to make major adjustments in the coming years.
According to Salto, The financial problem of the country It can be divided into distinct moments. For 2025, the situation is believed to be “somewhat equal”, with the possibility of compliance with the financial goal, taking into account some modifications such as using the bottom range of zero goal.
However, the 2026 scenario is more challenging. “In 2026, the government has a surplus of 0.25 % of GDP, our projection in Warren is a 0.8 % deficit of GDP. So there is a difference,” explained.
It indicates that this contradiction, which is called “the mouth of the crocodile”, is important and will not be easily solved.
Change the tax target
Given this scenario, the economist predicts that the government will have to change the financial goal.
The government will have to change Financial deadHe said he refused to do now and I think he is right not to generate more negative news, but when he offers an offer for the budget itself, which is August, this is the constitutional deadline, he will not escape from him, he will have to show a realistic goal.
In addition to 2026, Salto emphasizes the need for a deeper financial amendment than 2027. It proposes a number of measures, including changes in health and education, minimal wage changes and Fundeb review.
“Fundbs was 10 % of what countries spend, and the union goes there, a 10 % situation, you know how 23 % was,” embodies the jump, criticizes the increase without evaluating the appropriate public policy.
The economist also mentioned the need to review the parliamentary amendments and the cost of the public machine in general.
Salto concludes as necessary, “measure measures”, but it indicates that such changes will be viable only in the first year of a new government, indicating that there is no possibility of major changes in the short term.
