Even before the tense meeting of Ukrainian President Folodimir Zellinski at the White House last month, British Prime Minister Kiir Steimer was already confident of the British forces’ position on Ukrainian lands that are widely understood that they were land forces in a ceasefire with Russia.
After the setback in Washington, Starmer – alongside French President Emmanuel Macron and other European leaders – reinforced his promises to support the Ukrainian leader.
“This is not a time for more conversations,” Starmer said after a major meeting of state leaders and government in London the next day. “It is time to work.”
Now, after four weeks and after two main meetings for European leaders, the prevailing feeling is from the process of inevitably slowing down. Perhaps this should not be surprised.
Favorite terminology now “The Power of Confirm” for Ukraine The idea of the European “peace forces” is no longer part of the vocabulary. Macron told reporters after a meeting on Thursday in Paris, and he will not act on behalf of the Ukrainian forces.
Modern reports indicate that London in particular may cool the idea of sending forces to Ukraine, but Macron has insisted that nothing has been eliminated yet.
“We analyze the possibilities in the air, and in the sea and the earth as well. Nothing is excluded,” he said, adding: “This confirmation will be planted in Ukraine.”
More details will be released in time, but for the time being, military chiefs in France and the United Kingdom They have the task of working with their Ukrainian counterparts to determine the number of forces that would constitute this force, as they will be placed and what their capabilities are.
In military terms, it is time to develop the “operational concept” that would support this force. What are the potential threats that you will face? What will be the rules of engagement?
These are not simple questions and may take weeks to solve them. Inevitably, the answers need to consider limited or not present participation from the United States, which must slow down planning.
For Andrei Zagorudonic, the former Minister of Defense of Ukraine, aspirations must be realistic.
It highlights the clear logistical challenges represented by a thousand kilometers from his country with Russia, as well as the low possibility approved by Starmer and Macron the rules of engagement that allow European forces to enter into direct fighting with Russian soldiers. According to him, the advanced displacement of British or French lands will be an ineffective initiative, but a more limited commitment may also be a major impact.
He told the newspaper “Russia”: “There were many discussions about Europe to intervene and help in security agreements, but if they ended up sending 10,000 people to stay in Kiev, without being able to leave the city, it will not change anything in Russia’s accounts.” CNN.
In fact, with the impact of non -importance, such a movement can make Europe look weaker. Russia’s temptation to humiliate London and Paris It is difficult to resist any ceasefire with an attack on hundreds of kilometers from British and French forces in the capital.
In an article written by the Royal United Services Institute, a London -based defensive tank, Zagorodionic, along with two colleagues, argues that it is a better option for Europe that can be “aircraft shoes” on the ground – a commitment to watch the sky of Ukraine against Russian attacks.
Certainly, this protection means almost British, French and other nationalities parked in Ukraine, as well as its crews and support the accompanying logistics services. He says Europe may only provide coverage in the East and the Ukrainian Center, but despite this, it will allow Ukraine to devote all its power to defend the eastern part of the country.
Even the reaffirmation force, which was nothing but air assets inside Ukraine, will remain a big step to Europe. However, the risks of credibility, although they still exist, will definitely be less than any terminal from land forces.
At the same time, Europe should be very cautious. Managing expectations before any possible announcement is also very important. The credibility of any final implementation will be sentenced to a large extent through the way it is compared to what has been discussed before.
If it seems that the answer is insufficient, it will not only Ukraine that will weaken. Putin and Trump will also confirm their doubts that Europe is a “Manco duck”.