Four potential views for the future of Syria

In light The accumulated complications of the post -Syria’s accumulated complicationsIt was clearly visible in a series of internal and regional statements in March and April, The future of the country is in a sudden crossroadWith contradictory plans, calls to national unity can deepen the weakness of the state ranging from sharing efforts and external interventions.

As regional and international powers They compete to redesign the influence definitions Within the Syrian geology, A political and security panorama arises Very gentle that leads to one of many basic scenes.

A unit display with conditional regional warranty

New Syria led by interim president Ahmad al-ShahraAdopt the unity of the country and rejects separatist steps and calls, or Desire Expanding the edge of special powers for territories that reside for a majority of ethnic or non -racism.

This has included the religious position of the Republic of the RepublicSheikh Osama al-Rifai, who rejects sharing plans, emphasizes the need to protect the unity of the Syrian territory Whatever hunting is.

Kurda vision of the future relationship With Damascus, he worried the new government, which rejected the latest document Kurtos kosaranSpecial powers in areas they control.

But Damascus is not the only one who rejects this Kurdish course. Turkish president’s reports, Recep tayyip erdoganThey cut off the position of the new Syrian administration Discard any commitment from the unity of the countryEven in the form of regional powers in a federal system.

Erdogan insisted that Wednesday would not allow the establishment of Turkey He warned that there was no parallel corporation in Syria, that Israeli actions within Syria were fierce provocative. He also stressed that his country would respond To the efforts of “many ways” instability.

Sheikh al-Rifai called for the rejection of treason and to avoid revenge, and emphasized that every Syrian blood is forbidden, and that the path of salvation is not the course of its course and revenge. These positions come in a very dangerous momentBecause some internal and external forces are trying to reproduce the domestic conflict with non -short or regional causes.

Syrian Mufte, along with Turki, feels great dangers for the ongoing events between the extremist and residential units Damascus people’s druzos people in rural areasWith the backdrop of an offensive video told to a member of the Trusa community Soon he was exploited to launch campaigns against members These minorities are in villages close to the capital.

Recent Israeli reports increase fears on the face of these events because the Hebrew government threatened to interfere to protect the druztes In Syria. These statements are compatible with the rhetoric of the leaders Russians Within Israel, in Private Sheikh Muafaq TarifIt asks you to put your community under Israeli security.

To combine the preferences of the main actors to the scene of the Syrian faction -from the central state to Kurdish forces And dress and civil resistance- in a included formula, which includes administrative decentralization without compromising the unity of the state, and produces a political process Agreed with the regional warranty of Turgie And the influential Arab countries in the Gulf region.

The visual of the restricted federal

Although the first scene was forced by Damascus, it was Erdogan described the concept of federalism In Syria, there are actors in Syria, especially in the North and East Syria, which are constantly pressing, so that they are continuously pressing, so that the complete real reality imposed by self -inflicted forces has been recognized internationally through a self -management model. Some Kurdish statements have reiterated the demand for recognition of rights Syrian components In a decentralized frame. “

Although this proposal is not openly called separation, it raises the anger of both Damascus and Ankara, Because it is afraid that this is a preface for a gentle sharing that divides the road To the future partition. Some dress projects in the south argued that “protect the non -short specification within an integrated state”.

This scene can be found in some Western capitals and the indirect support of Israel They are trying to reduce the Turkish influence after the withdrawal of Iran Syria’s, without direct military implication, but it is still dangerous because it can open the door New internal conflicts Through borders, powers and natural resources.

Actual sharing display with external support

Recent Israeli reportsThey say that they are raising serious concerns that someone is looking to remove Syria effectively, or to help in the state of Syria, to occupy large parts of southern Syria after the fall of the Assad regime, and to help in the Syria regime.

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In this context, ** isIntensified Israeli attacks Some Israeli parties continue to promote the “non -short states” as a long -term solution to the Syrian conflict against the sites within the Syrian territory.

This situation, which becomes a reality, refers to the current status: many parts of many influence, each are administered by local forces with different regional or international support. This scene threatens the Syrian state’s decline as an integrated companyThe consistency transforms into a distant dream and is opened by many decades of interventions and representatives.

Prolonged confusion

If all political efforts fail There is no national and international regional and international support for a uniform political solution, and the light of the catastrophic economic and financial situation affected by the country, Syria can slide toward a new Kyas phaseRegional wars and mutual retaliation, in which local actors will rely heavily on outdoor allies to achieve environmental profits.

Erdogan has clearly pointed out that someone is “testing of Turgia’s patience Syrian file recommends that Ankara can push a wide direct intervention in the landscape, especially on the Turkish border.

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On the other hand, the signs of tension in the south are increasing where they are feared that they will be repeatedSamples Civil conflict, especially in some circles, warned the Republic of the Republic, with the appearance of revenge Turn off conflicts and prioritize logic Revenge justice.

In the scenes of the sensible unit, gentle sharing and formal confusion, Syria faces the most subtle historical rights. Not only the future of the country This is determined by the Damask, the opposition or the local forces they wantBut for the fact that the interests of regional and international powers on Syrian soil are intertwined.