Analysts who have been consulted before Panco Central Make light adjustments in their expectations for Economic inflation This year and the other, while expectations related to the growth of the Brazilian economy and predictions interest rate In both periods, it did not change, according to the Focus Survey, which was released on Monday.
The survey, which captures the market’s perception of economic indicators, showed that expectations IPCA increased by 5.55 % at the end of this yearLess than 5.57 % in the previous survey. For 2026, the projection of Brazilian inflation went to 4.51 %, from 4.50 % a week ago.
The BC -PRRSATATED target center is 3 %, with a margin of tolerance at 1.5 higher or down.
The weekly survey with one hundred economists also showed expectations that the Brazilian GDP (GDP) grows 2.00 % this year, which is the same projection in the previous week. In 2026, the expectation of growth was stable at 1.70 %.
In the central bank’s monetary policy, there was maintenance of the basic interest rate this year. The average expectations for SELIC at the end of 2025 is 15.00 %, in the sixteenth week in a row with this expectation, while expectations at the end of 2026 are that the rate reaches 12.50 %. Seleic is currently 14.25 % per year.
The result comes in the aftermath of another week characterized by concerns about the trade war between the United States and China, with slight optimism in the markets against changing the tone shown in both countries, where they continue to respond to the announcement of the definitions made by US President Donald Trump.
Trump has announced the implementation of the minimum 10 % on all American imports on April 2, as some countries got higher rates due to their trade balance with the American economy.
After a week, Trump boycotted “mutual” rates for most countries, while maintaining the global average of 10 %, but tensions with China, on the other hand, continued to climb.
After exchanging revenge, Trump imposed a rate of 145 % on Chinese products, while Beijing answered a 125 % tariff. However, Beijing has given some American imports from the latest tariff, which generates some comfort between investors and analysts.
In the local scene, investors analyzed the iPCA-15 data in the previous week, as the index rose in April, but they are under pressure through food and health prices, in 12 months above 5 % amid the BC interest rates.
IPCA-15 increased by 0.43 % in April, after an increase of 0.64 % in March, in line with the polls of expectations in Reuters. In 12 months, accumulated progress reached 5.49 % of 5.26 % in March as well as walking with expectation.
In the focus this Monday, there was also maintenance in expecting the price of the dollar at the end of 2025 at $ 5.90 Rand and a slight decrease from dropping to 2026 to $ 5.95, from $ 5.96 in the previous week.
The US currency accumulates decreases 7.9 % of this year, as the transition was made through the price correction process, after it grew up at the end of last year, and more uncertainty compared to Trump’s tariff plans.
